What's your action on this super big huge bubble hand?

[ilya]

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What did I do wrong?

GG

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Pot odds aren't meaningless. You are getting a huge overlay with the nut flush draw and 2 cards to come AND the chance to eliminate 2 people and almost guarantee a victory.

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Here's why I say pot odds are meaningless

GG

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you're not gaining ground here. your statement is continuing to be both stupid and ignorant, while with every iteration also becoming more blatantly "i'm not trying to learn."

citanul

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Why are you such an [censored]?

[Phoenix1010]

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[ QUOTE ]
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What did I do wrong?

GG

[/ QUOTE ]

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Pot odds aren't meaningless. You are getting a huge overlay with the nut flush draw and 2 cards to come AND the chance to eliminate 2 people and almost guarantee a victory.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's why I say pot odds are meaningless

GG

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you're not gaining ground here. your statement is continuing to be both stupid and ignorant, while with every iteration also becoming more blatantly "i'm not trying to learn."

citanul

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Why are you such an [censored]?

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I know you're joking, but it seemed like the guy was trying to explain his point, even though he was wrong. I'd rather he make an attempt to explain his thinking than just say I'm wrong, the smarter guy is right. Being mean has merit, but not explaining why does not. What you typed was just what I was wondering. Whatever, ignore me, I've been drinking.

-Phoenix

[gasgod]

Not to beat the moribund horse, but ...

I tried to explain what my error was, even though it was a stupid silly moronic misread. Citanul was completely right in his comments. Mea culpa.

I had jotted down the chip stacks in order to do an ICM calculation. But I overlooked that hero had already bet t800, and used his adjusted chip count (after betting t800) as his starting chip count. Citanul could hardly be expected to take such an elementary blunder into account when he made his comments, which were exactly on the mark.

I am so embarrassed by this faux pas that i could crawl into the woodwork. I tried to "do the math" and failed miserably. Maybe next time I will do better; faulting citanul is well off the mark.

GG

[MUD]

I've been lurking for awhile but this thread finally got me to register.

gasgod was RIGHT to begin with.

ICM calculation:

Fold:
if mid stack wins: 32.6% of prize pool
if small stack wins: 30.0%

Call and Win:
47.3% of prize pool

Call and Lose:
26.4% if midstack wins
16.4% if smallstack wins


Ok now I think the small stack is the most likely to be ahead. His call Pre-flop screams AK or AQ. In fact this is how I would of played it(see if A or K hits, b/c nobody is folding to you preflop with only 800 extra chips). And the caller usually would be leading anyway. His chances of being ahead I put at 75%.

You're chances of winning the hand are 33% +/- 1 depending on if you give one player AK or one diamond. And Daliman NOBODY is on the same draw as you. JTd is the only possiblity and it probably wouldn't have called preflop.

SO, when you call and lose(assuming 75% the small stack is ahead and you don't beat the other stack), you will have on average 18.9% of the pool

18.9% * 67%= 12.6
47.0% * 33%= 15.6
ADD = 28.2% of prize pool

FOLDING= 30.9% (assuming short stack wins 75% of time)

It's a fold and its not even close. A college student like me could eat for a week on the money you save on this fold at a $30 table. Its still a 1.7% of prize pool fold if you assume the chances of either one winning are 50%

Other circumstances dictate a fold even more. Presumably you are better ITM than the other players. I know its where I make most of my money. Also if you call and small stack wins you're UTG next hand with 800 chips and almost no folding equity which the ICM doesn't take into consideration.

I'm sure you guys will let me know if I made any mistakes, but at least I think gasgod should get an apology.

[gasgod]

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I've been lurking for awhile but this thread finally got me to register.

gasgod was RIGHT to begin with.

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I was wrong because I made a blunder, and was working with incorrect numbers. If my conclusion was correct, it was only by happenstance.

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ICM calculation:

Fold:
if mid stack wins: 32.6% of prize pool
if small stack wins: 30.0%

Call and Win:
47.3% of prize pool

Call and Lose:
26.4% if midstack wins
16.4% if smallstack wins


Ok now I think the small stack is the most likely to be ahead. His call Pre-flop screams AK or AQ. In fact this is how I would of played it(see if A or K hits, b/c nobody is folding to you preflop with only 800 extra chips). And the caller usually would be leading anyway. His chances of being ahead I put at 75%.

You're chances of winning the hand are 33% +/- 1 depending on if you give one player AK or one diamond. And Daliman NOBODY is on the same draw as you. JTd is the only possiblity and it probably wouldn't have called preflop.

SO, when you call and lose(assuming 75% the small stack is ahead and you don't beat the other stack), you will have on average 18.9% of the pool

18.9% * 67%= 12.6
47.0% * 33%= 15.6
ADD = 28.2% of prize pool

FOLDING= 30.9% (assuming short stack wins 75% of time)

It's a fold and its not even close. A college student like me could eat for a week on the money you save on this fold at a $30 table. Its still a 1.7% of prize pool fold if you assume the chances of either one winning are 50%

Other circumstances dictate a fold even more. Presumably you are better ITM than the other players. I know its where I make most of my money. Also if you call and small stack wins you're UTG next hand with 800 chips and almost no folding equity which the ICM doesn't take into consideration.

I'm sure you guys will let me know if I made any mistakes, but at least I think gasgod should get an apology.

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I disagree. At best, I should get an honorable mention for being right for the wrong reason. Pretty dubious distinction.

GG

[MUD]

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I disagree. At best, I should get an honorable mention for being right for the wrong reason. Pretty dubious distinction.

GG

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They were acting like you were approaching the problem from a completely wrong direction. You weren't. Pot odds are meaningless, and it is a simple ICM calculation. Your numbers were just slightly off.

[Myst]

Yeah what Dali said.