Should I just start using my own judgment?

[elcap]

In my experience at NL 100 and 200 this is rarely a bluff. I first started playing NL last year and this was one of my worst leaks. It has taken me a long time to get the discipline to lay these hands down but it has changed my game for the better. Don't get me wrong, I don't always fold but it is highly situation and player dependant. Most times I let it go. I think most of the more experienced posters on this forum would agree b/c it is through their advice that I realized that laying it down really is the correct play most times.

[imported_anacardo]

[ QUOTE ]
In my experience at NL 100 and 200 this is rarely a bluff. I first started playing NL last year and this was one of my worst leaks. It has taken me a long time to get the discipline to lay these hands down but it has changed my game for the better. Don't get me wrong, I don't always fold but it is highly situation and player dependant. Most times I let it go. I think most of the more experienced posters on this forum would agree b/c it is through their advice that I realized that laying it down really is the correct play most times.

[/ QUOTE ]

My mistake; I should have specified. This = NL $25, and some of these guys couldn't be handing their money away faster if they'd just give the table their ATM PIN. How does that change your assessment?

[elcap]

I suppose if that's the situation, then I like the random call method. But you may be right it may just be profitable to call this most times if players are really willing to push these hands with TPTK. This is something you need to evaluate through your own experience with these players.

[Atropos]

If your opponents were really tricky and sometimes bluffing at random too, your game theory strategy would be the optimum. However at these low limits most equity lies at learning to make good reads and going with them, because that way you can catch of more bluffs and fold against better hands more often.

If you want safe profit your method is best. If you want the most possible +EV and improve your game, you should stick with your own reads. You can still use math like bayesian stuff for reads, you seem like a math guy [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[imported_anacardo]

I'm actually way more towards the intuitive-psychological end than mathetmatical, I think, but this is a fairly common situation where I feel pretty lost.

Raised pot preflop, big (appropriate) sized bets, and a bunch of NL $25 guys, who apply the two following lines very commonly:
Slowplay a hand they really shouldn't (e.g. AA) to the river, then push.
Call down with a piece of the board or an underpair trying desperately to improve, then push regardless, b/c they REALLY want that pot.

Incredible greed seems like a common syndrome at NL $25. A lot of players act like they want somebody's whole stack, every time, regardless of the situation. So it's often very hard to tell whether your overpair, a hidden hand that's strong but not TOO strong, is any good or not.