Hand from the Orleans

[microbet]

Given the payout structure, I don't see much value in busting out the shortstack. I think I just want cheap chips.

edit: posted before I saw your retraction

[JoeTable]

Personally, I hate pushing here. You are 3rd in chips, and there is no need to get stupid at this point. You are risking $5k vs. $650 on 67s. Let me say that again...you are going to risk $5k vs. $650 on 67s. Late inning poker likes big cards that can possibly win unimproved. Particularly when you're all in. The pot odds are very good for a call here and the two can check it down. I don't even like trying to outplay the opponent on the flop for two reasons. One, if the flop hits you, you don't have to outplay him. You can simply make your usual value bets and collect. Two, if you the flop doesn't hit you, you don't stand to gain much, if any at all, by outplaying him, because you're most certainly beat by the UTG opponent.

Call and check it down if the flop misses you (or fold if UTG + 1 bets). Call and bet if it hits you.

[microbet]

You are not risking $5k. You are risking something like a 20% shot at $5k.

[Matt R.]

I keep wavering on my decision, so despite what I say I definitely think it's close. I don't like this line because your 67s simply won't be worth anything on most flops. Even the 1 out of 3 times you flop a pair there will be 1 or 2 scary overcards. I don't recall the exact odds for flopping 2 pair or better, but it's small enough to be irrelevant. The idea of calling and value betting your pairs would be great if you had enough chips to attempt value betting a pair of 6's. With only 12 BB's though, what if you catch your 6 or 7, value bet (which would amount to 1/3 of your chips), then get raised with 2 overcards on the flop? I think calling is too risky if you plan to bet with just your medium pair. The push is definitely risky too, but Irie seems pretty confident in his read that UTG+1 will fold to his push so I like this opportunity to try and accumulate chips. My feeling is that this is the type of play you have to make to win tournaments, given the current size of the blinds and the pot odds you're getting.

[raptor517]

oh gad please dont tell me you folded.. holla

[The Yugoslavian]

Given your read...I think you push here. I don't think you'll extract value from big stack b/c he's probably only playing the hand if he hits, and you'll have to hit it very hard to be ahead at that point.

I'd guess the big stack thinks it's his responsibility to call here but as you said, doesn't want to risk becoming short with a non-premium hand.

What will the table seeing 76s push do to your table image? Will they suddenly try to call you with anything? Will they be very afraid and cow to you b/c you're a manaic and they just want to survive?

Yugoslav

[valenzuela]

maybe the Big stack had a monster...My guess is irie pushed , the short stack had AT, the big stack JJ, nobody improved and Irie went home with seventh place

[Gramps]

If you push, everyone will see your hand given the all-in player. So much for stealing credibility (which it looks like you're going to want later on).

Since there's a good chance that if you flop a draw you'll see the Turn/River for free (unless you read UTG+1 as the type of loose aggressive fool to bluff with no side pot), why not just call given those juicy odds. By pushing, you really don't increase your odds of winning the chips in the pot by that much (what range do you put UTG on and how does 76s do against it vs. UTG & UTG+1 being in pot?), and your image being shot may cost you later, as it looks like you're going to have to do some stealing as the blinds continue to escalate.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
oops 6:1 was on the call....even still i like a min raise if you are that confident that he will not come over top of you.

[/ QUOTE ]

for that reason I think its best to push since you put maximum pressure on him and are almost certain he will fold.

[/ QUOTE ]


irie said that this guy is his son...in live play this means a lot...that being said id push online.

[Matt R.]

Putting both other players in the pot on reasonable hand ranges, I'd say forcing the big stack out of the pot increases your equity by a good 10% or so. That's about a 2,250 chip increase in expectation. I don't think the effect on your image will be too devastating. I just wouldn't push a hand like 76s for awhile, and with the game being 8 handed you can afford to be patient.