Limit Omaha High hand question - comments please.

[Moose]

Gentlemen,

Limit Omaha High tourney. Top 20 get paid, presently in 14th. Prizes 20th-10th are the pittance prizes, only at 9th do I start to win 2x my buy in.

Presently in 14th place. Blinds are, as always, 0.5X and X. I have 3.9X, and there are 200X chips in play, so 20X will get you to the final table.

Down to 14, with 7 on each table.

UTG folds. UTG+2 raises to 2X. He has around 20-25X in front of him. He is a solid player, and while he's surely not raising with a "royal sampler", he doesn't necessarily have to have AAxx or KKxx.

Two more fold to me. I have Ad Kc Qd 5h

Reraise or fold?

Comments appreciated, results to follow.

M.

[Moose]

I three bet, the big stack says "Let's put him all in." I remind him that I don't necessarily have to call, he snickers and says "Oh, but I think you will."

He has the troublingly good As Kc 8s 4c, over which I am only a 50.5-49.5 favorite, flop comes ace-club-club and not one but TWO more clubs seal my fate.

I think I need to play this coin flip. I need to double up three times before I have a final-table worthy stack, and unless he has AAxx or KKxx, I like my chances. At the worst case scenario, I get this coin toss. Far better is if he has AKxx with only 1 suit (about 54-46 in my favor) or something like AQJT rainbow (about 55-45 to me).

Since I am only about 2-1 down to a pocket pair, this seems like a reasonable chance for me to take. My reasoning is that this is not like hold'em, where you get a chance to get a "knock-em-out" call by a hand you might be 3-1 or 4-1 over. Almost every confrontation with all-in that I saw was about 7-5 or even only 6-5 for the big hands.

Again, though, that's why I'm asking, so all feedback appreciated.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Your play isn't a mistake, probably.

The only reason to not play here is if there is a decent chance to steal the blinds if you wait for a spot where you can be the first person in there with a raise. If that is true, then wait for it. If it's not true, e.g., you're going to get put all-in by the big blind even if he doesn't have much of a hand, then you might as well take this coin toss where you're getting 1.5x in dead money. And then go ahead and go for the other hand later to double up again.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)