Odds Question

[DaveduFresne]

Sorry not very good at math. Simple question- what are the odds of not hitting a set on the flop for 32 straight pocket pairs?

Yes, this happened to me tonight. Not looking for sympathy, just curious how unusual this is.

Thanks for your help,

David

[captZEEbo1]

flopping a set (or quads) is 11.76%
so odds of not flopping a set are 88.24%

odds of not flopping a set (or quads) n amount of times is .8824^n
so .8824^32 is:
0.01825 or 1.825%
or about 56:1

for more fun poker math odds:
http://www.poker1.com/mcu/mculib_odds.asp

[stu-unger]

the odds r 7.5 to 1 hit the set on the flop with a pocket pair multiply that by how many times it occurs and u'll have your answer. as for how as to odd it is to happen, i had a similiar experience on my last vegas trip i went 35 pp's without hitting a set through 5 cards, it happens man cold strings of cards of cards dont worry itll even out. but on the up side it's 1 in 17 to be dealt a pocket pair and u got a ton in one nite wish that would happen to me once

[DaveduFresne]

Aha, thanks for that calculation man. I'm pretty useless at math, somehow I miraculously passed precalc, no idea how I managed to do that.

David

[captZEEbo1]

[ QUOTE ]
Aha, thanks for that calculation man. I'm pretty useless at math, somehow I miraculously passed precalc, no idea how I managed to do that.

David

[/ QUOTE ]

copying off friends [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]?

[DaveduFresne]

Yeah, up to 35 right now. The reason I get so many is cause I multitable.

thanks for your help,

David

[DaveduFresne]

haha I do confess I plugged a few definitions into my graphing calculator....

Definitely helped with my final.

[PokerNeophyte]

Even though given any particular 32 PPs, odds are low that you won't hit trips are low, if you play enough, chances are quite hight that you'll encounter a run of 32 without hitting.
To illustrate, suppose the chance of not hitting trips with 32 PPs is 1.825%. So, the chance of hitting trips with at least one is 98.175%. But, suppose you get 32 PPs every night for 100 nights. The chances that you would hit trips at least once each night is:
.98175^100 = .1585, or 15.85%

So, after 100 nights, each with 32 pocket pairs, the chance that you would have a dry spell one night is over 84%.

Of course, the dry spell stands out, but over a long enough period of play, it's to be expected.

[DaveduFresne]

Thanks, this actually helps me put it into context a lot better.

David