bottom set

[theredpill5]

I'm saying that I don't think folding a set in a 4 handed game is +EV in the long run. It isn't a 4 card straight board. It's close but not. I think he has A 9 .

Only hands that I see, that are likely, that have you beat are 33 and 99.

[Sephus]

people call small raises shorthanded with 54.

[Verdi]

[ QUOTE ]
people call small raises shorthanded with 54.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't it better to call such hands in full rings where you can get more money if you do hit? In short ring big cards should go up in value and drawing hands should go down in value.

[theredpill5]

$12 is a small raise on a $3/6 NL but not on a 2/4 NL game in my opinion. I'm guessing you folded but you put him on 2 /4 .

I made a similar fold tonight on a very similar board but I didn't have a set. I had JJ on a 3 4 5 board and someone pushed all-in for $27 on the flop. I folded and he showed TT.

[TheWorstPlayer]

The problem is that he can obviously beat an ace. And there aren't very many hands that can beat an ace but lose to bottom set. The only two I can think of are aces up and 23. Neither of those hands seem especially likely for a tightish player to call a raise with OOP. FWIW, 45 doesn't seem very likely either for the same reason (although of course it's possible). Most likely hand is 33, right?

However, it wasn't a very big raise and people will often defend their blinds loosely against a small preflop raise. So I think 23 and 45 are both within his playing range. Also aces up with a suited ace is certainly possible.

Anyways, all told I think it's close, but I think this one is closer to a call than the straight hand. He could have A9 and just made aces up on the turn. He could have 23 (just as likely as 45, right?). Even though you would roll over and die, he could have AK, IMO. I probably grit my teeth and call. If he has 45 you have outs. If he has 33, you have an out.

[jhall23]

Tough spot. I think 33 seems like the most likely hand to me as well.

How did that AA vs KK hand play out? Did it get all in pre-flop? Can we severly discount or eliminate AA here. Does 'sorta tight' eliminate Axs? If there his range includes 2 pair/straight/set I probably call this but I haven't done any math to see if that is close or not.

I probably would have called in the heat of it all but getting away from a set in a spot like this could be a leak I have.

[soah]

In the AA vs KK hand there had been a raise and a reraise preflop, and the rest went in on the flop. The guy with KK had only started the hand with about $250 or $300 and rags flopped.

[jhall23]

I think we could discount AA at least some then. I would expect him to re-raise a lone UTG raise. Have you run anything through poker stove yet?

Here's a few I did. When we start given more credit to just a straight/overset then two pair it looks like a fold. Add in more two pair hands and it looks like a call.

[ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

396 games 0.010 secs 39,600 games/sec

Board: Ac 2s 3h 9d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 31.0606 % [ 00.31 00.00 ] { 2d2c }
Hand 2: 68.9394 % [ 00.69 00.00 ] { 33, A9s, 54s }



[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

528 games 0.005 secs 105,600 games/sec

Board: Ac 2s 3h 9d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 46.4015 % [ 00.46 00.00 ] { 2d2c }
Hand 2: 53.5985 % [ 00.54 00.00 ] { 33, A9s, A3s-A2s, 54s }



[/ QUOTE ]

This last one is the same as the prior one with 2 of the 6 combo's of AA added (not sure why they didn't show up in the results) to account for him have AA some percentage of the time.

[ QUOTE ]


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

616 games 0.005 secs 123,200 games/sec

Board: Ac 2s 3h 9d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 40.0974 % [ 00.40 00.00 ] { 2d2c }
Hand 2: 59.9026 % [ 00.60 00.00 ] { 33, A9s, A3s-A2s, 54s }

[ QUOTE ]

[amoeba]

How was your image ? have you been raising UTG with crap and representing the ace when an ace flops?

how often have you raised in the last 20 hands or so?

If you've been playing fairly tight, I think he feels he has the ace beat and if he is tight himself, he won't call preflop with A2 or A3. There is no draw so he won't be semibluffing on the flop.

I think you are beat 80% of the time.

[soah]

My image should be pretty solid... but as I said, we had been playing six-handed leading up to this, and now it's four-handed so that may change some things.

This guy wasn't a nutjob and he wasn't going to be building a pot out of position with a marginal hand... maybe AK is enough for him to checkraise in a four-handed game on this flop, but I don't expect to see him with A9 or 99 or some of the other hands that people have mentioned...

I called his flop raise thinking "holy hell, I flopped a set four-handed and I'm getting action!" His turn bet still didn't worry me obviously, and I tried to build the pot.

When he came back over the top of that, I thought "damn, there's nothing I can beat that he would play this aggressively," which was followed quickly by "omg, I have a set in a four-handed game on a ragged board, let's double up!"

So I went ahead and called him, and I doubled up too, because his 54o was no goot against my rivered boat.