I got punked!

[salloch]

This looks like a spy vs. spy episode...with both of you trying to out-think the other...good stuff.

Raising this flop is the standard play. And it's what I do most of the time.

However, I don't mind your calling the flop to represent a flush draw. Villian can't be the only player allowed to play his hand in a devious manner.

I would have pushed the turn however. Now there are two flush draws and a bona fide straight draw. There are too many cards on the river to scare him or you. Your best chance to get your set paid off is here.

It's very hard to put the villian on T9. Even if you did, you'd have to heavily discount the possiblity. Yes, if you raise the flop, you will probably take it down, but if he holds AA, KK, TT, AQ, AJ, or maybe AK you are setting yourself up for a much bigger win by calling.

I think the important thing is that you put him on a range of hands, and came up with what you thought was the best plan to win the most. This time it didn't work.

-salloch

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]
This looks like a spy vs. spy episode...with both of you trying to out-think the other...good stuff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think either was trying to outsmart each other, they just outsmarted themselves and villain got the best of it.

Villain played this hand poorly from the turn on.

Hero just plained played this hand bad.

Lawrence

[tripdad]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
His river bet I think lets you safely fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding here is terrible

[/ QUOTE ]

a good LAG, which this guy seems to be, doesn't bet this big on the river without the pure nuts usually.

cheers!

[tripdad]

[ QUOTE ]
Your opponent is the typical crap player on Party SS NL

Bets strong when drawing, bets weak with a made hand on the turn to let cheap draws like a flush/fh get there, and then pounds it for horrible over-bet on the river when a crap card calls trying to fake a "please don't call me" type play when it's obvious his hand is monstrous.

Gotta love these guys..

Lawrence

[/ QUOTE ]

from what i see, these guys really clean up the low limit games, feasting on both TAGs, and the bad loose players. the smart ones can really pick out the decent players and adjust.

cheers!

[MonkeeMan]

[ QUOTE ]
your opponent made a very clever all-in overbet on the river with the nuts. most players at 100nl can't do that. you have to call. note him and move on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Couldn't disagree more. I think the opponent is a donkey who got lucky on the turn and made a horrible bet on the river. What hands does he put hero on that call this bet?

I'm also in the raise the turn camp.

[Macquarie]

Just gonna collect my thoughts on this, since it's been a really interesting thread.

Main debate seems to be that hero is defending his check-call line by saying he want to maximise the EV against a player with a marginal hand. Villain will just fold to a raise! The problem seems to be that you don't want to maximise your EV against a player with very little, you want to maximise your EV against a player with something he likes - this is where you have a chance of taking down a big pot and where your money is to be made. Sure somtimes a flop raise folds out a hand that might have given you a few more bucks, but on the other hand it builds a big pot against someone who likes their hand enought to call or play back at your raise. You're aiming to win his stack, not win 15 bucks.

There's no reason on the flop to think villain doesn't have a hand like an overpair or AQ. With a hand like this, he's much more likely to play back at a raise on the flop than on later streets, especially if a scare card (for him) like a club falls. The extra EV you gain against this sort of hand by raising the flop make up for the cases when you fold out a marginal hand.

The other argument is raising to protect your hand. Slow playing a low set this slow seems like a way to win a small pot or lose a big one. Hero says that villain has already given himself poor odds, and hero is not going to pay off the flush. I really disagree here - villain has great implied odds. He raises preflop, leads with 3/4 the pot on the flop (which he would do with virtually any hand). If a club comes on the turn and he bets half the pot you have to call or probably even raise! He would make this turn bet with all the hands you beat, and you have no reason to put him on the flush. Even considering the times when you redraw to the f/h I think he has good odds.

If he's drawing on the turn, this is even worse - he's getting great pot odds, and great implied odds... if a spade hits on the river, you're gonna have to call a pot-sized bet aren't you?

So for the twin reasons of building a pot early against a raiser who has hit the flop, and for protecting against draws that have good implied odds, you have to raise flop and turn.