I'm a luckbox... standard on all streets?

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop call might be thin, but with your definitively good 3-outer, I'd be very tempted to peel at 13:1 with implied having to be able to cover my 3SB deficit, along with your positional advantage. I really don't like the fact that your preflop raise (which I occasionally do as well) gave you those odds to call the flop, but I'd still be peeling.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the pre-flop raise is awesome.

-d

[madscout]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the pre-flop raise is awesome.

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[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[chief444]

Preflop raise is standard for me.

Flop call....close. Pretty marginal but I guess with this pot probably about breakeven or slightly postitive. I just glanced at your calc's for a second and they've already been discussed. But one other thing to add in is you do have a little value with pair outs. If nothing else you have some runner-runner value there even if the T's or J's are never good.

Turn call isn't thin at all. Folding there would be terrible.

[Rico Suave]

Nick:

[ QUOTE ]
Are you really sure? Why wouldn't you count them? These are bets we're talking about, where would go else than to the winner of the pot?

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No, you really can't count them on the profit side of the equation.

Let's take a coin flip for example. You bet your friend $1 that is will land on heads.....your friend calls your bet. So, what is the ev of this bet.

50% of time it will land on tails, and you will lose $1
so .50 X $1 == -.50

50% of the time it will land on heads and you win.
if we include our bet here, then the equation is .50 X $2 = $1.00

So the ev of this bet is $.50? Can't be. The problem is that we cannot include our bet as profit or gain.

Hope that makes some sense.

--Rico

[Nick Royale]

Yeah, so I realised. but thanks for correcting my retarded posts.

[madscout]

Rico Suave,

I thought about this all over my lunch break, and couldn't see how including my bets in the EV calc could be correct. Your way of explaining it is so simple... thanks!

Also, my original calculations are wrong. There are 10 flush cards in the deck on the flop, so my probability of picking up a good draw is 16/47 = 0.34.

I calculate that my probability of picking up a good draw, and then completing that draw is 0.0583, or about 16:1 odds. How exactly are people getting the 14.5:1 number?

Thanks,
madscout

[Nick Royale]

Sorry for confusing you, maybe I should consider to move down in limits rather than move up as I was planning. But you can trust me on this one [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

When posters are reffering to 14.5:1 they aren't excactly reffering to the odds of turning a flush-/straight draw and then completing it. Have you read SSHE? Ed Miller counts a bdfd and bdsd as 1.5 each. In this situation you have both, together 3 outs. And if you have 3 outs you need the pot odds of 14.5:1 to call. The reason this odds isn't the same as the one you counted is that in these odds Miller has added implied odds. You'll always fold the turn UI and when you hit you'll often win big.

[brazilio]

If I remember correctly, in his SSH example for counting the backdoors as both 1.5 each, he only had us getting in 1 extra bet on the river when we hit, along with us saving our river bet if we miss and the likewise turn bet if we really miss. Here I think we'll be getting in more than 1 bet on the river, and our turn more than likely becomes much more profitable than it would normally be.