#1
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I\'m a luckbox... standard on all streets?
I raised preflop because it was multiway. How thin is the turn call?
Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls. Flop: (11.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP1 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, Hero calls. Turn: (7.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls. River: (13.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, CO calls. Final Pot: 19.25 BB Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF"> UTG has Kc Qc (one pair, queens). CO has 4d 4s (three of a kind, fours). Hero has Th Jh (straight flush, queen high). Outcome: Hero wins 19.25 BB. </font> |
#2
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Re: I\'m a luckbox... standard on all streets?
i dont know if i raise preflop here, but i can see it. after that, yeah, pretty standard. nice river.
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#3
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Re: I\'m a luckbox... standard on all streets?
standard? what do we have on the flop?
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#4
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Re: I\'m a luckbox... standard on all streets?
[ QUOTE ]
standard? what do we have on the flop? [/ QUOTE ] Two backdoor draws, position, and 13.5:1 on our call. Is the call that bad? |
#5
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Re: I\'m a luckbox... standard on all streets?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] standard? what do we have on the flop? [/ QUOTE ] Two backdoor draws, position, and 13.5:1 on our call. Is the call that bad? [/ QUOTE ] Looks pretty bad to me. |
#6
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Re: I\'m a luckbox... standard on all streets?
Turn call is as easy as it can be. Flop call is thin though.
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#7
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Re: I\'m a luckbox... standard on all streets?
I see nothing wrong with a flop peel.
Turn call is mandatory (you're getting odds to call for your flush alone, ignoring your gutshot to the nuts). -d |
#8
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Re: I\'m a luckbox... standard on all streets?
Given only the information I have at the flop, if I make some assumptions I don't think my flop call is that bad. Please feel free to criticize me here because I want to learn.
My assumptions: 1) I will not face two bets on the turn if I pick up a draw 2) all my flush outs are good. 3) I can get a raise in on the river with everyone calling (probably wishful thinking) Here's my EV analysis: I miss picking up a draw: 0.68*-.5BB = -.34BB I hit a flush draw but miss the river: 0.19*0.804*-1.5BB = -.23BB I hit a straight draw but miss the river: 0.13*0.826*-1.5BB = -.16BB I hit a runner runner flush: 0.19*0.196*15.75BB = .59BB I hit a runner runner straight: 0.19*0.196*15.75BB = .36BB EV = .59 + .36 - .16 - .23 - .34 = + 0.22BB Is this just a bunch of wishful thinking trying to justify my call? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] |
#9
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Re: I\'m a luckbox... standard on all streets?
[ QUOTE ]
Is this just a bunch of wishful thinking trying to justify my call? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I don't think so. Your math seems good, and although I'm sure you didn't do all that math at the time (who could), you had a feeling the odds were there, and in fact, you were correct. Your flop call is probably marginal (and we can see that from the math), but that doesn't make it bad. In this case, it is slightly in the green in the long run. It is certainly a call I'd at least consider making, considering position and the large pot. |
#10
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Re: I\'m a luckbox... standard on all streets?
Madscout:
[ QUOTE ] I can get a raise in on the river with everyone calling (probably wishful thinking) [/ QUOTE ] yeah, probably. [ QUOTE ] I hit a runner runner flush: 0.19*0.196*15.75BB = .59BB I hit a runner runner straight: 0.19*0.196*15.75BB = .36BB [/ QUOTE ] I think you are including your turn and river bets in the 15.75BB figure. If everyone stays and calls your raise when you hit you would win ===> 6.5BB (size of pot on the flop) + 2BB (bets going in on turn) + 4 BB (bets going in on river) == 12.5 BB You can't really include your 3 bets going in on the turn and river in the calculation. If you make this adjustment, the ev from the calc is essentially zero...based on the assumption. also [ QUOTE ] hit a runner runner straight: 0.19*0.196*15.75BB = .36BB [/ QUOTE ] should be .13*.0.174*15.75 = .36 i think. --Rico |
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