Nut flush draw, big pot, now what?

[TheDrone]

Loose fishy $50 NL table. Big pots and bad calls are very common.

Preflop: MP raises to $2.50, button and SB call, I call in the BB with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Flop ($10): T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Check, check, MP($35) bets $10, Button($55) and SB($65) call, I have $43 left.

[Tim H]

push

[jkkkk]

implied odd's make this an easy call

[theblitz]

Only a call?
Not worth the push?

Surely the implied odds plus the fold potential makes this push-able.

[PinkSteel]

But should you raise/push rather than call?

I think flat call, since a raise/push has little chance of folding everyone and you'd still have to draw out anyway.

But OTOH, another club could kill your action, and maybe you want the money in now, especially if you can get multiple callers.

I'd flat call but I'd love to hear a strong argument for pushing.

[jkkkk]

...

you guys do realise you are about 34% to hit the flush?

all a raise will do is isolate you against someone who is beating you or make everyone fold.

a flat call here gives you the oppurtunity to get out if the action on the turn gets heated, and build a nice pot on the turn / river if you hit.

[PinkSteel]

That's not all there is to it though.

If no one else is on a club draw, and a club comes on the turn, and you bet out, how many callers do you expect to get? Not many.

BUT, if you're 34% to make your nut flush, and you push the flop and get 3 callers, that's a +EV play, right?

I still flat call -- I don't think you get sufficient callers to the push -- but it's just not a cookie-cutter play. You have to account for fold likelihoods on the flop push, on a turn bet, and the likelihood that someone else may be on a club draw.

[LuckYou777]

i don't think you have enough folding equity to justify a push.

it doesn't help the case for a push when youre giving people who "[make] bad calls very common[ly]" odds of 2.52 to 1 (at least- 3.32 to 1 to the original raiser) to call your last $33 in a position where you're still drawing.

[jkkkk]

[ QUOTE ]

BUT, if you're 34% to make your nut flush, and you push the flop and get 3 callers, that's a +EV play, right?


[/ QUOTE ]

yes

[ QUOTE ]

I don't think you get sufficient callers to the push

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someone else may be on a club draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly.

[LuckYou777]

[ QUOTE ]
If no one else is on a club draw, and a club comes on the turn, and you bet out, how many callers do you expect to get? Not many.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's not unreasonable to think that another person might be on a club draw. and being in position helps you decide the best course of action if the turn is a club. Remember, loose game where big pots and bad calls are common. Don't count on everyone shutting down if a club falls.

Flat call.