2 people flopping a set?

Unvme · #1 05-23-2005, 04:46 PM

just looking of the odds in a 10 handed game, 4 way, of 2 people flopping a set.

thanks

Unvme · #2 05-25-2005, 09:08 PM

noone knows?

treeofwisdom7 · #3 05-25-2005, 10:27 PM

chance of getting a pair 1/17 *1/17 = chance 2 people have pair preflop

multiply that by chance someone catches set squared..

wrap it!

TH

closer2313 · #4 05-25-2005, 10:28 PM

provided all 4 have pocket pairs?

If 2 people have pocket pairs, its somewhere around 1/100 of a chance. I think

C(2,1) * C(2,1) * C(44,1) / C(48,3) = 1.01%

treeofwisdom7 · #5 05-25-2005, 10:38 PM

yah i think thats correct too little more than 1% which means you should worry when you flop a set. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

fannar · #6 05-26-2005, 02:27 PM

You probably only care about the answer if you actually flopped one. So a more appropriate question might be, what is the probability that another player flops a set, given that I flopped one.

If two players both see the flop and both had pp preflop, and if the flopped cards are all of different rank the probability is 2/47 + (1 - 45/47)*2/46 = 8.42%. The probability that the opponent's set beats yours depends on how your set ranks w.r.t. the flopped cards.

The probability that the oppenent flops a set (unconditional on him having pp preflop) depends on the probability of him having pp given that he sees the flop, which obviously depends a lot on his playing style, and could be anywhere between 6% and 100%.