bubble play question

[emptypockets]

Sorry but the converter didn´t work.

NL Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee
Level:6 Blinds(150/300)
Table Table 16927 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 4: Rock ( $1583 )
Seat 8: Hero ( $1295 )
Seat 1: LAG ( $3872 )
Seat 6: TAG ( $3250 )
Trny:12454935 Level:6
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ac 5s ]
TAG folds.


Hero?

[henrikrh]

Shortstack, 4 handed. Push. But then again I may be too aggressive. And I do sometimes push without enough information about the other peoples hands, because it's 4 handed though... do you feel safe with your ace not being dominated? If so push.

[gasgod]

Fold. There is too great a chance that one of the big stacks will call, given the stack sizes. A5o doesn't do well against their likely calling ranges. Just my gut feeling.

GG

[henrikrh]

I strongly disagree with the fold suggestion... an ace 4 handed should be assumed to be strong 4 handed with no information yet (especially with one fold). Don't know the exact math, but dealing out A4 with a deck, then shuffling and dealing two hands ace will most often be good. Raise perhaps, maybe even limp, but fold?

[curtains]

Moving allin is correct, everything else is flat out terrible.

[emptypockets]

Thx for the advice. Just wanted to see if u thought pushing was a terrible move.
I moved in and lost to the rock, who had QJ, and hit a J on flop. I call him a rock because that´s how he played up until this point.

[zambonidrivr]

i would rather push a 5, than call with qj any day. gg

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]

Moving allin is correct, everything else is flat out terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I accept that. Can you tell me where I went wrong?

ICM gives 16.8% of prize pool for folding.
If you Push and they fold, ICM gives 20.5%
If you Push and win a showdown, ICM gives 26%

Given the stack sizes, I estimated you'd be called perhaps 65% of the time, and would be a 55% favorite when called.

So, pushing is .65*.55*.26 + .35*.205 or 16.5%, which is less than the 16.8% for folding. (There's also an outside possibility that the other short stack will wake up with a monster, but that's pretty remote.)

Is my estimate of the likelihood of a call out of whack? Or is my estimate of my win % at showdown too low? (or both?)

Hmmmm. Maybe I need eastbay's program.

EDIT: Oh, S**t, I misread the OP. Didn't notice that one of the big stacks had folded. Forget all the above crap.

GG

[IcarusFalling]

not a bad play at all.... i would be more than happen to play against a JQ.. you have no idea how many times i've won with aces against hands like that : ) i <3 aces.. i might have folded offsuit though depending on how i feel.. and on the bubble you have to be a little careful because it is RIGHT before the money ! !

[microbet]

You should get Eastbay's program. It is +$EV even if you put both blinds on looser than the maniac setting, which means it really wouldn't matter if both blinds were big stacks.