River bet for value?

Pokey · #1 05-22-2005, 08:10 PM

Standard Party Poker table with too many people seeing too many flops and playing too passively.

LAP was loose and semi-aggressive preflop (VPIP 42%, PFR 6%) and passive post-flop (AvgAgg 0.83, mostly on the river) after a bit over 100 hands.
Calling Station had 33% VPIP, 0% PFR, and an AvgAgg of 0.55 but the read was only on 40 hands.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Pokey is Button with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 (Calling Station) calls, 2 folds, Pokey raises, SB (LAP) calls, 1 fold, MP1 (Calling Station) calls.

Somewhat successful isolation raise.

Flop: (7 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
LAP checks, Calling Station checks, Pokey bets, LAP calls, Calling Station calls.

Obvious.

Turn: (5 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
LAP checks, Calling Station checks, Pokey bets, LAP calls, Calling Station calls.

Equally obvious.

River: (8 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
LAP checks, Calling Station checks, Pokey bets....

Here's where I run into trouble. Is this bet +EV? I'm imagining that any diamond flush draw is playing exactly the way LAP played this hand so far, and who knows what Calling Station has. I was very worried that a diamond flush was going to check-raise me but any other hand would fold. The deciding factor was that Calling Station had a WSD over 40%; I figured he'd call with whatever made him call on the flop and turn and I'd make money off the deal. This is the proper move here, right?

damaniac · #2 05-22-2005, 08:24 PM

Are you calling a raise on the river? That'd be important to know when calculating the EV, right?

KDawgCometh · #3 05-22-2005, 08:25 PM

I think considering these opponents ag factors, you could fold to a river CR

damaniac · #4 05-22-2005, 08:39 PM

Blah. I tried to do all this "math" and such to figure this out, but I realized that's stupid, mostly because I'm not terribly sure what I'm doing. Anyway, you'd have to figure out how often you're getting c/r vs. called vs. folds, plus how often they both call vs. 1 of them calling. The short answer is that since you have some overlay from calling station, if you think you won't get check-raised maybe 40% of the time, you're probably good, IF you are also getting called a substantial amount of the time. Unless they have a broadway gutshot that missed , there aren't a lot of draws they would have missed, so I don't see lots of folds here, so that takes care of that. So you think LAP and calling station call down with non-flush draws here that often, bet it.

Also, I'm not terribly concerned about the chop the way the hand played out, but one should factor that in too, if someone decided to slowplay the case A, you're chopping at best, but I think we see that almost never given the action and players.

rmarotti · #5 05-22-2005, 10:48 PM

Easiest. Fold. To. A. Checkraise. Ever.

uw_madtown · #6 05-23-2005, 06:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Easiest. Fold. To. A. Checkraise. Ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hoi Polloi · #7 05-23-2005, 07:21 AM

You're only beating Aces up or less here. I would check this through with 2 opponents.

Definitely an easy fold to the c/r if you do bet it.

Webster · #8 05-23-2005, 07:23 AM

Fold to a check raise? NEVER. It's one more bet to a nice size pot. You have invested in this pot so I'm not folding to a check raise. He has to prove he has this hand.

These guys are both calling stations although the guy you call calling station does not have enough hands to really know what his game is.

HOWEVER - I woud not bet the river. If they missed their hands they will fold.

Grinders Warehouse BLOG Edition

chief444 · #9 05-23-2005, 07:58 AM

Bet/fold IMO. You'll get calls against these two opponents from a J or maybe even pocket pair. You chop with A7/A6/A5-A2. You may not even get raised if one of them does have a flush.

DMBFan23 · #10 05-23-2005, 08:00 AM

without reading the hand I guess yes.

EDIT: OMG I win again!!