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#1
05-23-2005, 12:07 AM
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Fold this set of queens?
I seem to be running into a lot of straights with my sets lately. Any thoughts what I should have done??? - I figured there was enough in the pot to call (and enough doubt that no one had str8).
Normal Table No Limit 10.00/20.00 Rake: 2.00 Seat: 1 Me (Dealer) Seat: 2 XXXXX Seat: 3 Player 1 Seat: 4 XXXXX Seat: 5 XXXXX Seat: 6 Player 2 ------------------ OpeningBetRound ------------------ xxxxxxxxxxx : Posts small blind 5.00 Player 1 : Posts big blind 10.00 xxxxxxxxxx : Folds Player 2 : Calls for 10.00 Me : Raises for 40.00 xxxxxxxxxxx : Folds Player 1 : Calls for 30.00 Player 2 : Calls for 30.00 ------------------ Flop ------------------ Player 1 : Bets 100.00 xxxxxxx : Sits down 0.05 Player 2 : Raises for 200.00 Me : Calls for 200.00 Player 1 : Went all-in 1349.50 Player 2 : Went all-in 468.00 Me : Went all-in 819.50 Player 1 : Receives returned betting money 430.00 ------------------ Turn ------------------ ------------------ River ------------------ ------------------ Showdown ------------------ Me [ QH, QS, QC, JH, 10D - Three of a Kind ] Player 1 [ AS, KC, QH, JH, 10D - Straight ] Player 2 [ JH, JC, 10D, 10S, QH - Two Pair ] ------------------ Result ------------------ ------------------ Community Cards ------------------ [ JH, QH, 10D, 9C, 3S ] ------------------ Players Cards ------------------ XXXXXXXX [ -, - ] Player 1 [ AS, KC ] [ -, - ] Player 2 [ JC, 10S ] Me [ QS, QC ] xxxxxxx [ -, - ] 
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#2
05-23-2005, 07:19 AM
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Re: Fold this set of queens?
Impossible to read mate. I'd approximate big stack ahs a straight more than 60% of the time. Th thing is, if he has a set, he has to worry about you having AK or QQ too. Second or bottom set isn't a very safe holding on this board. So given those numbers it still is a call, haven't done the exact math but pretty easy call. I might be off on the numbers tho, he might well have the straight more often, and this might swing the decision to a close fold. Small stack also factors into the decision of course. He has to have something that connects with the board, which means he either has a straight or something that takes away som of you outs. This is not good news of course.
EDIT: Make it easier to read and you will get more responses.
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#3
05-23-2005, 12:12 PM
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Re: Fold this set of queens?
thanks for the response - i tried to convert with the bison hand converter - it didnt work - is there anything that does prima hands??
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#4
05-23-2005, 12:13 PM
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Re: Fold this set of queens?
Your decision should be based upon needing to pair the board a high percentage of the time (at least 70%, probably more IMO). If the other other player is decent, I don't see anything other than AK he would do this with because he would have to consider the possibility of you having that hand. I guess there is an outside chance he does that with an underset, but that would be bad.
If my math is right you are betting $620 to win $2000. Which means you need to win 31% if the time to make the call correctly. If you all your outs are live (doubtful with 2 callers, probably should knock out a couple) you are approx 35%, knock out a couple you are a little less than 30%. If you factor in a chance 20% chance that the str8 is not out there, and that your hand holds up 95% of the time, if my math is correct you win about 43%. I think this is a call, it only a marginable fold if they turn the cards face up.
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