Another AK hand (AK is giving me tons of trouble)

[microbet]

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So my question is this...if you are playing a live game (or even an online game depending on how quick you are with ICM)...how do you make these decisions? I would tend to go with pot odds at this point in the tourney...And again you are using a few % point difference on a model that is not precise -- and you are using 4 (!) significant digits...for example if I round your .0835 to ..08 to match the sig digits for your .18 I get 44.4% which is basically a dead heat.

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I don't do ICM calcs during a game. I'm not that fast or smart. The only calcs I ever do are pot-odds, like you said. So, I won't necessarily come up with the same answer during a game as I do in the forum. All the ICM calcs and arguments in the forum, I hope, are developing my intuitive sense for what is the right decision during the game. I think I have a pretty decent feel for what ICM will say in a situation, but it could certainly get better.

.0835 is 3 significant digits - and that is probably 1 too many, but not 2. And a dead heat means fold here - unless you are a losing player.

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What I dont understand is how you make decisions like this while playing in the real world?

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In the real world in this situation, I expect to have enough of a read in this situation to make it a clear call or fold. Even if the guy hasn't shown anything, I would call here if it has been a loose table. People who don't play the $22s (I don't, but have recently) may not realize that sometimes they are tight as hell.

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Not trying to flame you, just wondering how to apply this kind of post to the real world.

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It would be hard for this to be less of a flame.

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error of the model its a wash.

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I think the error in the model makes it more inclined to tell you to call here than you should.

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For what its worth I am calling here (particularly in these small tourneys) because I have seen lesser hands than the ones that get you 43% over and over again.

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46% is really what you need. I put that in a different post. 43% was just a guess at what you would actually face - not on the range.

I certainly don't mean to be making a "pass up this early +$EV spot argument", it is all on the villian's range of hands.

You may well be right, and if someone who has played a bunch of $22s recently tells me that I'm crazy to put a player who just hasn't yet shown me how crazy he is on 99+, AK, AQs or something like that, then I'll gladly call here everytime.

[Scorpion Man]

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.0835 is 3 significant digits - and that is probably 1 too many, but not 2
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error of the model its a wash.

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FYI its 4 significant digits. You are using a data set that includes 0.18 specifically and the tenths in general The zero counts here. That is a hell of a lot of digits. I do think its 2 too many for what its worth.

[lastchance]

I think most $22's would have a range that includes AJ+, 88+, which swings this to a clear call.

Even w/o AJ in the mix, this is a call, and I've got to think that a $22er going to push with AQ here.

Hero calls.

[microbet]

I don't know. I only played 253 $22s, but I don't think the average $22er pushes with AQ here.

I suppose it is a bigger error to not call here against a loose player than it is to call a tight player, so if you haven't been paying attention you should call.

[lastchance]

Really? I know people at the $22's like to mix things up for some reason, so they're not pushing AQ 100% of the time, but they'll throw in stuff like K4s because "you might be bluffing dood, back off,"

I think you've got hands dominated here.

[treeofwisdom7]

when you have AK the chance of AA or KK cuts in half right? so if you have AK chance of someone having AA is 1/442?