Preakness picks

[Runner Runner]

I've been doing a little research on this race and based on a collaboration of other people's opinions I have come up with the following:

Overlay horses:

NobleCauseway, Greeley's Galaxy and High Limit should be underbet by the general public and provide decent value.

Underlay horses:

Afleet Alex and Giacomo should be overbet by the general public and avoided, (little or no value). Either may win, but they will not pay a decent price.

There are a lot of smart people out there saying the Kentucky Derby was not indicative of much since the race started at too torrid of a pace and none of the horses had anything left, turning it into a crapshoot at the end.

Good Luck

[chiachu]

daym i wanted to bet on afleet alex again.. but 5:2 isnt all that great... do you think it will go even lower in the end?

[Runner Runner]

It will either stay at 5-2 or go to 2-1. Afleet should definitely be the favorite, but not at 5-2. Many casual players bet on the favorite, so there is no value there. He should probably be about 4-1.

[RaDiCaLReeD]

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Overlay horses:

NobleCauseway, Greeley's Galaxy and High Limit should be underbet by the general public and provide decent value.




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I agree but I would put Closing Argument at 6-1 at the top of the list, and then Greeley's Galaxy.


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Underlay horses:

Afleet Alex and Giacomo should be overbet by the general public and avoided, (little or no value). Either may win, but they will not pay a decent price.



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Stay away rom Afleet who has been over run and will run out of gas for sure.


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There are a lot of smart people out there saying the Kentucky Derby was not indicative of much since the race started at too torrid of a pace and none of the horses had anything left, turning it into a crapshoot at the end.



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I agree

[llabb]

For those who do want to bet the favorite, the best I've seen on Afleet is at Pinnacle, currently at +290. I agree that's too short a price, but he's consistently good, and both the shorter distance and more reasonable expected pace should help him.

I've only found the other fav, High Fly, at +450. Has anyone seen any better? He's 5-for-7 in 1 1/8 mile races and had the lead at the Derby at the 1 1/8 mark. With the Preakness only 1/16 longer, he could hold the lead this time if the pace is reasonable enough.

Both Runner's and Reed's overlay horses look good, and I particularly like Closing Argument and Noble Causeway.


I'm thinking about some combination of these 4 horses for exactas and trifectas. Trying to narrow it down to 3 of them. Can anyone give their thoughts, if you have to pick 3 of the above 4 horses?

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