Why most good players never suceed!

[SossMan]

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Lets say: Hero has T4500 in MP. blinds are 400/800. 84 players left, TOP 80 pay. Folded to Hero in MP with AQ suited. All players behind have me covered easily. Folding here is +EV. No?

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding is always EV neutral. (in terms of chipEV)

You have 5.5x. You have FE. This is a fairly easy push. I guess it sort of depends on how deep the other stacks are (I find it hard to believe that ALL the stacks behind you are big enough that t4500 doesn't hurt them somewhat). I think that they would all have to have like 15k or more for this fold to be correct.

[SossMan]

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You have to get away from the fear of busting on the bubble. It's irrational.

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One thing to remember, though, is that Party has an idiotic payout structure that has a much higher marginal return for the people who barely make the money. You'll see payout structures that look like this:

81-90: $300
71-80: $370
61-70: $450
51-60: $540

etc.

Thus, barely moneying is a much larger increase than you see again until you make the final table, meaning DW's take on it has more merit.

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point taken.

[DaveWilliams]

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[ QUOTE ]
Lets say: Hero has T4500 in MP. blinds are 400/800. 84 players left, TOP 80 pay. Folded to Hero in MP with AQ suited. All players behind have me covered easily. Folding here is +EV. No?

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding is always EV neutral. (in terms of chipEV)

You have 5.5x. You have FE. This is a fairly easy push. I guess it sort of depends on how deep the other stacks are (I find it hard to believe that ALL the stacks behind you are big enough that t4500 doesn't hurt them somewhat). I think that they would all have to have like 15k or more for this fold to be correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a fold here is correct. Lets assume they each have at least T10,000. By folding I am almost guarenteed to make the money with-in the next orbit (partypoker). So I might blind down to T3300 before I can safely take a gamble.

I don't see the merit of pushing now (risk of bubbling) vs pushing one round later. Sure you have a favorable hand, and might be forced to push and or call with a hand such as J10 next round. But for most average players like me, I think we have to fold here.

[schwza]

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I think that they would all have to have like 15k or more for this fold to be correct.


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really? i would push there regardless of what everybody else had. if you pay blinds you'll be down to 4x, and if they go up before you're in stealing position (or if the bubble doesn't burst), you're going to be forced to win a showdown. eck.

[SossMan]

with the flat payout structure described on party (i don't play on party so i don't know), it would lean the decision closer to a fold, but not necessarily all the way. Would you rather push with a hand that, if called, has potential to be ahead, with a tremendous amount of folding equity, or be ground down to 3x or 4x, after the bubble, and push with a hand like JT with zero FE.

Let's look at it from another point of view:

what would you do in the SB w/ a hand like 88 or even AK and you had 9k. MP moves in for 4.5k and it's folded to you? If it's even a mildly tough decision, then it's a no brainer to move in with AQs from MP.

[SossMan]

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I think that they would all have to have like 15k or more for this fold to be correct.


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really? i would push there regardless of what everybody else had. if you pay blinds you'll be down to 4x, and if they go up before you're in stealing position (or if the bubble doesn't burst), you're going to be forced to win a showdown. eck.

[/ QUOTE ]

let me rephrase...they would have to have 15k for me to consider folding. I would likely still push.

[Tyler Durden]

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Lets say: Hero has T4500 in MP. blinds are 400/800. 84 players left, TOP 80 pay. Folded to Hero in MP with AQ suited. All players behind have me covered easily. Folding here is +EV. No?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you fold here regularly you should probably shoot yourself in the mouth or otherwise put yourself in a state where you're unable to ever pay for another tournament entry in your life. Like, North Dakota. No wait, I mean, just don't play if you're going to be folding here.

[Tyler Durden]

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You have to get away from the fear of busting on the bubble. It's irrational.

[/ QUOTE ]

One thing to remember, though, is that Party has an idiotic payout structure that has a much higher marginal return for the people who barely make the money. You'll see payout structures that look like this:

81-90: $300
71-80: $370
61-70: $450
51-60: $540

etc.

Thus, barely moneying is a much larger increase than you see again until you make the final table, meaning DW's take on it has more merit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually I think Party's payout structure is why I'm more willing to gamble on the bubble b/c you're not making a whole lot of cash unless you make the top 3 spots. Barely squeezing into the money doesn't do much for you, you can make that kind of money by winning a SNG or in a limit game.

I'm surprised everyone is taking this troll so seriously. But I guess he is contributing something. But it's poor info so whatever.

[LuvDemNutz]

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Lets say: Hero has T4500 in MP. blinds are 400/800. 84 players left, TOP 80 pay. Folded to Hero in MP with AQ suited. All players behind have me covered easily. Folding here is +EV. No?

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This is so fvcking weak.

[Tyler Durden]

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Lets say: Hero has T4500 in MP. blinds are 400/800. 84 players left, TOP 80 pay. Folded to Hero in MP with AQ suited. All players behind have me covered easily. Folding here is +EV. No?

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This is so fvcking weak.

[/ QUOTE ]

Best post of the thread. Well, second to the ones I made. But it's close.