Q5o IP BB HU with TAG SB

[ajrenni]

I don't think Q5o is strong enough to get involved with pre-flop. You are an underdog to a random hand, so even if SB is raising with trash, his trash could easily beat your trash. There was an article in the 2+2 magazine - I think it was in April - talking about defending the blinds in short-handed play, and the author talked about showdown value (how likely you are to win if neither of you improve all the way to the river) and the recommendation was basically to pull moves like this when your hand has decent showdown value (i.e. Ax or Kx).

But since you tried this move, I do like the flop raise, since it is pretty much your only way to win. If SB has an overpair, he will probably 3-bet you. If he doesn't, he will probably think he has only 6 (possibly discounted) outs in a small pot. If he doesn't fold now and he doesn't improve on the turn, he will probably fold to a bet there, getting only 5:1.


However, if you think SB is capable of calling your flop raise and investing money in the turn, you are better off folding the flop. Where this play turns bad for you is if he calls your flop raise and turn bet, and at the free showdown turns something that beats your Q5o. If this is really a blind steal, he could have hit a pair on the flop and might consider the fact that you could be bluffing enough overlay to call down without the odds (he could do this with overcards as well, particularly KJ).

You are also in trouble if he pulls a stop and go on you, or you get check-raised on the turn, especially if the turn is a Queen. In that case you will have invested $ when your hand was worthless and will have to abandon it when it does have some value.