30/60 ok to fold this?

[tl65\]

Party 30/60, opponent is a tight regular in the 15 game, probably a break even player or a small winner in that game. Numbers are 14/7/1.5.

I'm dealt KK in MP1 and raise, opponent 3-bets from MP2 all fold to me and I cap.

Flop comes Q33 rainbow, i bet, he raises, i call.

Turn is an offsuit 2, i bet, he raises, i 3-bet, he caps.

Does anyone fold here? I know i'm getting something like 15:2 to call down, but i don't think my hand is good often enough.

[Zeatrix]

I would put him on either AA or QQ after the turn. If I was absolutely sure that he was the kind of player that never would play AQ like this (or KQ - maybe he's a maniac [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]) I would probably fold at this stage, you're only getting 13.75:1 which is nowhere near drawing to a king, not even if you add the implied odds would you hit your K.

I'd still say call or fold is all about the read on the opponent...

[philnewall]

Yes you very probably are beat, I would have 3-bet the flop, if he caps then you could call down and wouldn't have to put all those big bets in against a hand that very probably has you beat.

[MCS]

What were the hands you put him on after he raised the turn? He's raised you at every opportunity. You capped preflop and he still raised the flop. You bet the turn and he raised.

I think AA or QQ are his most likely hands after the turn raise. Would he 3-bet preflop with AQ? I don't think your turn 3-bet has a ton of value since it just sets you up to probably get reraised by AA or QQ.

If you would fold to a cap, you could pay the same amount by just calling the turn and the river and get to showdown. I know you miss a bet against AQ but I really think that's outweighed by the times you get capped by QQ or AA.

Plus maybe you'd even catch a K on the river and win the pot.

I think I call the turn and the river. I mean, in real life I 3-bet the turn and then when I regret it later I post it on 2+2 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[baronzeus]

At best you are hoping to split.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Party 30/60, opponent is a tight regular in the 15 game, probably a break even player or a small winner in that game. Numbers are 14/7/1.5.

I'm dealt KK in MP1 and raise, opponent 3-bets from MP2 all fold to me and I cap.

Flop comes Q33 rainbow, i bet, he raises, i call.

Turn is an offsuit 2, i bet, he raises, i 3-bet, he caps.

Does anyone fold here? I know i'm getting something like 15:2 to call down, but i don't think my hand is good often enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given (a) his pfr % and (b) his postflop aggression, I think you can safely say he has better than TPTK. You capped pf. You sng'ed the turn brick, and he still popped you. Would a player with an aggression of 1.5 play AQ this way? I doubt it. If you are worried he is raising AQ here for a free showdown, sng the river, too. That way it still costs you 4bb from the turn on to get to SD (assuming he pops the river, too). I think if you 3-bet the turn here, you have to be willing to fold to the cap given your read on villain. I'm not good enough to fold here, but it sure looks like you are in big trouble.

[goofball]

The people saying 3bet the flop are spot on. I think this makes the hand much easier to play. If he caps you can proceed from there.

[Wes ManTooth]

[ QUOTE ]
At best you are hoping to split.

[/ QUOTE ]

? explain. This will be interesting

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
At best you are hoping to split.

[/ QUOTE ]

? explain. This will be interesting

[/ QUOTE ]

Does a player with those numbers cap the turn vs. a PF capper with less than TPTK?

[DpR]

I don't think there is much of a chance he caps AQ here. Players with those stats will often not even cap AA there in fear of QQ. I think its very likley he has QQ.