Sniffing out a set or an overpair

[sirtimo]

Absolute Poker NL $.50/$1 blinds full ring

Hero is BB w/$120. Playing tight, started this session about 2 hrs ago w/ $50.

Villain is MP w/ $140. No major reads on him. Been solid, has done nothing stupid.

Dealt to Hero 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in BB
3 folds, Villain raises to $2,
3 folds, Button calls, SB folds, Hero calls

Flop 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero checks, Villain checks, Button checks

Turn 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hero checks, Villain bets $1, Button calls, Hero raises to $5, Villain reraises to $10, Button folds, Hero calls.

River 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Pot is $31.50 ( i think)

Hero checks, Villain bets $22.............

Comments?????

[aexchange]

would he raise with 34s/56s/78s? does he play suited connectors? against an unknown, i probably call here and expect to get shown 2 pair most of the time.

you've got bottom set against a guy who you think has played pretty solid for the most part, now is not the time to go crazy. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

there's a possibility he may have 55 or 66, but i definately call.

[DoomSlice]

Would he raise with 10 10? The scary part is that he checked the flop after betting preflop, which is often indicative of a set, probably top set.

[MuckerFish]

First post, so here we go...
Pre-flop/flop seem fine, turning bottom set first to act I usually like to lead out (who's going to figure an off suit 2 helped you?) but the check raise works also (I'd maybe raise a little more since it's bottom set, but the 3/4 pot raise was fine). His min re-raise is fishy(trying to sucker you in for more or is he tricky enough to do this with an oesd trying to steal?-depends on reads, but most players aren't that ballsy/aggressive at these limits. (I'm discounting the 3-4 possibilty for the straight, doubt most sane players would open raise even from late position with it)
I'd play the river differently- throw out about 1/2 pot bet, will serve as a blocking bet, and if villan comes over the top you can be a little more comfortable letting go of bottom set, especially since OESD(7-8) just got there too. Don't be afraid to bet into a raiser if you have a hand, it keeps the aggression in your court and forces the villian to make the tough decision instead of the other way around.
As you played it, I'd call the $22 dollar bet, getting about 2.5:1 on your money. Set over set not too common but a possibilty here, depends what type of hands villian has been open raising with from late position. 2 pair (9-10, 5-6) and overpairs probably seen here enough to make the call +EV. Doubt he's on a stone cold bluff with the turn reraise. You only need to win 1 outta 3 to be right about calling here.

[sirtimo]

I had him pegged for a big pair or AK-AQ from the start so I wasn't worried about the straight. When he minraised my raise on the turn I thought it was AA or KK trying to get more value, but still had a little nagging feeling.

Had more of a feeling I was beat when he bet the river like that.... still, I figured he had AA-JJ about 1/3 of the time so I called. He had T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and MHING.

I'm actually pretty happy with my play. I didn't get stacked with this hand, as I would have not-so-long-ago. Now I need to figure out how to lay it down next time.

regards,
Tim

[jhall23]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm actually pretty happy with my play. I didn't get stacked with this hand, as I would have not-so-long-ago. Now I need to figure out how to lay it down next time.

regards,
Tim

[/ QUOTE ]

Even though you lost the showdown, it doesn't mean that calling was the wrong move. If you have a read that he wouldn't make this play with just an overpair then sure you can lay it down. But as you said you only need to win about 1/3 of the time which I think is a pretty safe assumption. You have to be willing to make call's that you think you will loose more than 50% of the time when given the right price. In otherwords I think laying down here is generally bad without a real good read on villians play, NH!

Just feel good that you will probably make a lot more on it on average if the roles were reversed.

[wtfsvi]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar på:</font><hr />
Just feel good that you will probably make a lot more on it on average if the roles were reversed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero would probably bet out on the flop and the 22-guy would probably fold. No?

[sirtimo]

Yes, if I had TT on that flop I would have led out for about a 1/2 pot bet... hoping it looked like my AK missed.

(and if he had bet at it on the flop I would have folded my 22)

[jhall23]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just feel good that you will probably make a lot more on it on average if the roles were reversed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero would probably bet out on the flop and the 22-guy would probably fold. No?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, in this one specific hand hero would probably make less. What I meant was that on average hero is going to make more most likely.

EDIT: Also I'd just like to point out it's nice to see the boards show us how to say "quote" in Norweigan (I assume) when you quote something. Never noticed that before.

[pokernicus]

[ QUOTE ]
Would he raise with 10 10? The scary part is that he checked the flop after betting preflop, which is often indicative of a set, probably top set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Another clue here is that you know the deuce didn't help him on the turn (since it helped you!) -- so by his re-raise you can be sure he was slow playing the flop. This means he has a very good hand on the flop (i.e., something that is good enough that he can risk giving away a free card). Also, keep in mind that if he's a solid player, it's not likely that going to slow play an overpair like AA-QQ, because it's too easy for some hand like that to be cracked when you give away free cards.

Given his pre-flop raise and texture of the board, you can also rule out two pair. All signs point to him having a set... And of course, any set he has will beat any set you have...