Easy fold/call?

Arnett23 · #1 05-17-2005, 04:17 PM

Situations like these are I think my biggest leak in MTT's. AQ/AJ and mid pockets are hard for me to play in early positions. In this situation I had been raising alot with good hands that were not getting shown down, so probably had a very aggressive table image.

PokerStars Game #1715881727: Tournament #7943059, Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2005/05/17 - 16:05:06 (ET)
Table '7943059 28' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: nahito (9320 in chips)
Seat 3: Lopaka (7255 in chips)
Seat 4: string4 (4800 in chips)
Seat 5: Shedden (7938 in chips)
Seat 6: Mortikina (1633 in chips)
Seat 7: LouieOneTime (18834 in chips)
Seat 8: Narita (26705 in chips)
Seat 9: JJJ776699 (10415 in chips)
nahito: posts the ante 25
Lopaka: posts the ante 25
string4: posts the ante 25
Shedden: posts the ante 25
Mortikina: posts the ante 25
LouieOneTime: posts the ante 25
Narita: posts the ante 25
JJJ776699: posts the ante 25
JJJ776699: posts small blind 200
nahito: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Lopaka [As Qs]
crazyman22 is connected
Lopaka: raises 800 to 1200
string4: raises 3575 to 4775 and is all-in
Shedden: folds
Mortikina: calls 1608 and is all-in
LouieOneTime: folds
Narita: folds
JJJ776699: folds
nahito: folds
Lopaka: ???

I figure if I call and lose I am hurting pretty bad with blinds coming and going up in like 2 min, if I call and win I have alot of chips to play with.

ZBTHorton · #2 05-17-2005, 04:24 PM

fold..fold...fold...

schwza · #3 05-17-2005, 04:28 PM

you've got to put in 3.5k and you can win a total of about 12k. the sidepot will be about 6.2k and 5.8k in the main.

your odds of winning the main pot look pretty slim to me. i would expect one of the two players to have AK/QQ+ most of the time here, so call your equity in the main ~20%. (i'm guessing that's about what you are to AK/JJ).

i think utg+1 range is something like 99+/AQ+. i don't have pokerstove, but i'm guessing that's in the neighborhood of 28%.

which makes you ~24% equity in the pot, so it's a fold, but close.

all those numbers are very rough, but that's how i'd do it in a game situation.

Arnett23 · #4 05-17-2005, 04:36 PM

Would it change at all if I said it was a $3 rebuy to sunday tourney?

schwza · #5 05-17-2005, 04:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Would it change at all if I said it was a $3 rebuy to sunday tourney?

[/ QUOTE ]

how many left, how many pay?

i don't really know how these play. but the the $3 buy-in part makes me want to call a lot more.