POLL: Play the board's straight?

[toss]

Calling in this 1.5 BB pot for a chop AND its going to be raked one SB? Its like in Omaha Hi/Lo where you putting in money for the low only to be quartered or third'D.

[tijean]

You've got no money in this pot aside from your blind. And the best case scenario is that UTG is a complete donk and folds so the split is two ways instead of three. Plus, if it splits three ways, you'll be losing money after the rake. Easy fold.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
What possible reason would there be to raise? How could anybody fold a straight for one bet? I vote call.

Edit: Didn't notice how small the pot was. I could see a fold here based on that.

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the reason to raise would be to try split it two ways instead of three.. barring a nine being out there. it would have no effect on the rake either.

not that i'd raise here.. that's just the reason behind it.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
You've got no money in this pot aside from your blind. And the best case scenario is that UTG is a complete donk and folds so the split is two ways instead of three. Plus, if it splits three ways, you'll be losing money after the rake. Easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

your thinking is really flawed or simply confusing me:

- it doesn't matter what i've put into the pot myself. there is money up for grabs which belongs to no one and i have 3 choices to maximize my share of it. would your decision somehow be different if you VPIP'd instead?

- i won't lose money postrake if its split 3-ways. double check the pot size and payoff. my blind is gone.. its no longer my money.

- how would UTG be a complete donk in folding and yet you suggest that Hero folds here? maybe this is related to the second part and thinking its a loss if its split 3-ways.

[deception5]

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And the best case scenario is that UTG is a complete donk and folds so the split is two ways instead of three.

[/ QUOTE ]

So if we fold we're the donk?

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
how would UTG be a complete donk in folding and yet you suggest that Hero folds here? maybe this is related to the second part and thinking its a loss if its split 3-ways.

[/ QUOTE ]
UTG is closing the action. You aren't. The (small) chance that UTG has a 9 is why your decision to fold/call/raise is harder than UTG's would be closing the action.

I voted fold.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
how would UTG be a complete donk in folding and yet you suggest that Hero folds here? maybe this is related to the second part and thinking its a loss if its split 3-ways.

[/ QUOTE ]
UTG is closing the action. You aren't. The (small) chance that UTG has a 9 is why your decision to fold/call/raise is harder than UTG's would be closing the action.

I voted fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, but i don't think this was his thought process..

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]

yes, but i don't think this was his thought process..

[/ QUOTE ]
Hehe, I didn't notice the "you don't have any money invested" comment.

[matt42s]

I folded, based on pot size and risk v reward but I see it as an interesting game theory problem. I haven't analysed game theory before so please point me in the right direction when I get it wrong. I won't get a chance to do it properly for a day or so but expect another post when I do.

As an intro, and to estimate whether a full analysis is needed I guessed the assumptions a caller might be using.
SB, being first in, is taking a shot and is content to split. Both SB and Hero are likely to fold to a raise from UTG? UTG will likely only raise with the 9 and will call without it
15% of the time UTG has a 9. (1-41/45*41/44)
85% chop 3 way. EV 0.5
15% SB and Hero fold to UTG. EV -1
(0.85*0.5) + (0.15*-1) = 0.275
A call based on that logic is +EV but the assumptions are incomplete.

The following is only a quick approximation. If we give SB the 9 his fair share of the time ~15%, you chop 70%, lose 30%. EV= +0.05

Based on these estimates, I would probably change my vote to a call but I think the full analysis will show its very close either way. Obviously reads would help. Anyone care to give me some numbers on how often SB leads with a bluff?

[ClaytonN]

Win money

Not pots