All-in Call with Baby Set?

Intrepid · #1 05-16-2005, 05:54 PM

This hand occurred in a live $100 buy-in game with $1-$2 blinds. Five players saw the flop come: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I had about $110 left and was holding 33 on the button. A loose-aggressive bet $40 all-in, a conservative player raised to $130 all-in, an average/conservative player with about $120 called all-in, and my fourth opponent folded. How much money would have to be in the pot before the flop to justify calling all-in with my baby set?

elus2 · #2 05-16-2005, 06:16 PM

if 2 others are all in then this should be an automatic call. against a flush and overpair you have 32% equity. against a flush and a straight you have 34%. Against a pair and a flush you have 30% equity. You are really only in bad shape against a flush and 2 pair or 44. against 2 pair equity drops to about 18%. against a higher set equity drops to 4.5%. it would be helpful to know how much money was in the pot after the preflop raise but it isn't really necessary since we have the loose aggressive player who has already put in 40 dollars with god knows what.

Intrepid · #3 05-16-2005, 06:29 PM

I was pretty certain that the minimum holding of the two conservative players was 44 or a straight. There is no way that either of these players would risk all their money with just an overpair on this flop! How would this affect your assessment?

elus2 · #4 05-16-2005, 06:35 PM

i still call. it's a lot likelier that you are up against two flushes or a flush and a straight than against a set of 4's. remember there are even times one of your opponents is holding a set of 2's.

MLerra · #5 05-16-2005, 06:36 PM

You don't fear a straight for those odds, all you fear is 44.

Based on nothing at all, I say Mr. 40 has nothing, first guy all-in has a medium overpair (let's say 9's) and the second guy all in has a flush.

tripdad · #6 05-16-2005, 06:48 PM

this is a tough question.

after some thought, i think a call is in order. the LAG could have anything(probably an overpair to the board). the conservative player in the middle has a big pair with 1 diamond. the average player (all-in caller) probably has the best hand with a made flush.

this pot is big enough for me to call with what is likely the biggest draw(though conservative guy could have 1 out to the immortal nuts).

ni han!

Intrepid · #7 05-16-2005, 06:53 PM

I have a fair amount of experience playing with the two conservative players. I believe that A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] were more likely holdings for them than 22. I'm not sure conservo #1 would have risked his stack with bottom set (and three players yet to act), and I'm pretty sure that conservo #2 would have mucked 22 after conservo #1 went all-in. Nevertheless, I think it is a close decision even without any preflop money.

Intrepid

PS: I should clarify that I thought it was more likely that conservo #2 had the straight flush than either one of them had bottom set. If conservo #1 flopped a straight flush, he would have slowplayed.

Rockatansky · #8 05-16-2005, 06:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I was pretty certain that the minimum holding of the two conservative players was 44 or a straight. There is no way that either of these players would risk all their money with just an overpair on this flop! How would this affect your assessment?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're positive that one of the players is holding at least two pair, a set, or a straight, then you're not getting odds to call here. Even if one of them is holding deuce-deuce for the underset, you're not getting odds.

I don't have time to run the numbers right now, but I'm pretty sure that even if you're only 75 - 80% sure that one of them is holding one of the above hands, you're not getting odds (esp. since if someone is holding 4-4 you're essentially drawing dead).

Also, I think it's a mistake to assume that the LAG is holding absolutely nothing. LAG != incompetent. I agree that it's somewhat possible that he's holding only an overpair, but it's likely to be either 6-6 or 5-5 (thus giving him some sort of straight draw), since anything higher and he'd likely have raised it pre-flop.

elus2 · #9 05-16-2005, 07:09 PM

i don't know how you can put any of your opponent on the nuts here. Kdxd or Adxd or even any other diamond suited connector can make this play. here are the list of hands you do not want your opponents holding:

2 combinations of straight flushes, 3 combinations of 44, 4x3x where x is the suit of the case 3 plus 4 combinations of 42s.

So that is 10 combinations of cards that your 2 opponents can hold. 5 of which have you drawing dead or nearly dead and the other 5 you still have aroudn 20% equity.

There an so many more combinations of Adxd, Kdxd, 22, overpairs with or without a diamond, straights, etc. that are drawing dead here or that you have lots of live outs against. A more interesting case would be if only one of your opponents went all in and the action was to you. In this case you would have to process his range of hands and your estimated equity over that range since I really doubt that you can immediately put him on a flush or a straight. Again how much money was in the pot from the preflop action?

elus2 · #10 05-16-2005, 07:12 PM

if one of them holds a hand that you dominate then yes you are getting the odds to call because of the overlay from preflop action and the lag's dead money. in a 4 way pot i will take a chance that no one has a straight flush, 2 pair or 44.