Q5s gets better and better

PotatoStew · #1 05-16-2005, 08:33 AM

First hand at the table, no reads...

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $3. CO posts a blind of $3.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, MP3 (poster) checks, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, Hero ???

What would you do here?

Matt Jenko · #2 05-16-2005, 08:34 AM

call and hope rest of the field stays in.

Emoney · #3 05-16-2005, 08:46 AM

depends on how loose they are behind you. there's value for a raise if you think more than one will call, assuming all 15 outs are clean.

Matt Jenko · #4 05-16-2005, 09:20 AM

good points.

JoshuaD · #5 05-16-2005, 09:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
depends on how loose they are behind you. there's value for a raise if you think more than one will call, assuming all 15 outs are clean.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't think it's gonna happen nearly often enough at 3/6, just call and get some overcalls.

PotatoStew · #6 05-16-2005, 10:13 AM

I'm 2-1 to win the hand at this point (assuming my outs are clean... maybe I shouldn't do that) -- SB will almost certainly call, so I really only need one other caller to raise this for value. Besides, if people fold, that increases my equity, and isn't that a good thing? If I raise, another Q, flush draw or 8 no longer has his odds to draw. Or is that too small of a possibility to be concerned about?

ckessel · #7 05-16-2005, 10:32 AM

I call. You're not getting a Q, or likely even an 8, to fold an open ended straight draw, so you're not cleaning up any Q outs. You're also not getting a better flush draw to fold.

If you make a hand, it's almost certainly the best hand and you'd rather have as many callers around as possible.

ckessel · #8 05-16-2005, 10:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Besides, if people fold, that increases my equity, and isn't that a good thing? If I raise, another Q, flush draw or 8 no longer has his odds to draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but they is you and you is they. You don't have the odds to double bet either.

You're not increasing you equity in this particular case. You've got a near 0% chance to win unimproved. You've got a close to 100% if you improve to a flush or straight (pairs are likely not winners).

Getting others to fold won't improve your chances in this particular case. What would someone have that you want to have fold, AND that they would fold? The only cards you'd like to see fold are better flushes or someone with a Q. Those simply aren't going to fold.

You're double raise is driving out hands that might give you more bets on the river if you make your hand, but not hands that might have beat you if you don't improve, since you simply will not win this hand unimproved. Well, you could win it on a bluff at the river, but the odds are extremely slim.

PotatoStew · #9 05-16-2005, 12:57 PM

Ok, everyone seems to agree, so point taken.

However, I did in fact raise. 2 folds, and the SB 3-bet me. I call.

River: Ac

SB bets, I raise, he calls w/ KQ for the flopped straight, then proceeds to unleash 3 or 4 chat lines of wailing and cursing. To his credit though, he didn't berate me directly, he just seemed upset that his hand lost.

One of the guys who folded claimed to have 78, and folded because he was sure someone had KQ. I guess if I had just called, he probably would have stayed in (but most likely would have folded to my river raise).