Turn dilema

[Ross]

PLHE middle stage Blind 200 400. I have 10,000 chips 7 handed I am in the cut off with A [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] ,I bring it in for a pot sized raise (1400 in total)Button who is chip leader (25000) flat calls. Blinds fold.

I am not sure about what the flat call tells me about the chip leaders hand. He is a loose aggressive player and will stand a raise with a wide range of hands. I am fairly sure however he does not have a big pair or AK as he would probably reraise.

Flop comes down Q [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img]

I bet 3400, my opponent flat calls. Now I am 95% certain that he has a draw for either the straight or flush.

Turn brings 10 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img]

Should I bet my last chips (5200) into the pot that currently stands at 10,200 when I know my opponent will not fold?

Views please.

regards

Ross

[sdplayerb]

Yes.
There is 10,200 in the pot.You want him out now as you have a lot more to lose than gain. Even if he called your allin, he is getting 3-1. If you bet much less, it becomes worth it from him to chase a flush draw.

If you don't, you could go broke, but probably won't win much more.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

If you're really that certain he has the draw, I would bet it. He's at least a 4:1 dog to hit, and only getting 3:1. Also, you're not sure which draw he is on. So, if one of them hits the river, and you check, can you really fold to an aggressive player, when he might be bluffing with the other draw? Also, he might bet with any pair, thinking you have AK and missed. Thus, even if you sense he is confident of his hand, that doesn't mean he has you beat. Since I would often (always?) have to call anyway, you might as well get the money in now. If the river is a blank, you don't expect him to pay you off, so you're giving him a totally free shot at hitting his hand if you check here, with really almost no downside for him.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[APokerGuy]

Rather than focus on the turn dilemma, you might want to back up and think about how you could have played the flop differently (think about it, your play on the flop virtually guaranteed a dilemma on the turn). Take into account your knowledge of the players style, his position, his stack size, his preflop call decision, your hand at that moment, and the implications of putting (the magical) 50% of your stack into the pot at that moment.

As a side note, I am interested in why you would eliminate AA from consideration for his hands?

I'll let you take a shot first at defending your play and logic on the flop (or giving an alternative view of how you could have played it) and then I will give you my thoughts (for what it is worth) on why I would not have played the flop that way.

APokerGuy!

[Ignatius]

Esp. given your reads of the other player, failing to move in here would be a major mistake.