Daniel Negreanus challenge and forming my own corporation

[DesertCat]

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I sincerely doubt he'd be unable to sell the game at all if Bellagio passed on it, and I sincerely doubt that Bellagio would pass on it if he played at the Wynn, especially given how popular his table game is going to be in my estimation.

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I'm guessing you've never sold anything for a living. It's like jumping on your number one potential customers desk during the sales presentation, pulling down your pants, and punching out a doodie. You are suggesting taking that public crap won't affect your chances of making the sale since the product is so damn good.

And when your boss asks you to explain that behavior, you tell him it doesn't matter that the biggest potential client has banned you from their offices, because you have so many smaller sales leads. See how long you would keep that job.

Bellagio's pre-eminant position in Vegas poker is under serious attack for the first time. It's smart to not publically pick at that sore while you have important business pending with them. People don't always behave rationally, no matter how great Sklansky's game is, an "us vs. them" attitude at Bellagio or any other casino attitude could kill it in the crib.

[Jordan Olsommer]

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People don't always behave rationally, no matter how great Sklansky's game is, an "us vs. them" attitude at Bellagio or any other casino attitude could kill it in the crib.

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Any executive who refuses to take on an incredibly profitable product simply because his honor was offended by the actions of the person who is selling it will be punished by the market. And like I said, if something is incredibly important to a businessperson, they get it in writing.

Take a similar hypothetical example, to infuse a tiny bit of rationality into your outlandish one: let's say that I run a business and I somehow calculate that I can gain 30% market share by using an Oracle database. The Oracle salesman comes in, and while we're negotiating a price, the hard-sell Oracle sales executive says he doesnt need to negotiate and proceeds to take a dump on my desk (as per your original example). Now I want you to tell me exactly what I gain as a businessman by refusing to do any business with Oracle because of this. If I refuse, now I have 30% less market share, and what do I get in return? A warm glowing feeling inside knowing that my honor (and desktop) will not be sullied?

So now let's bring it back to the real world; say that Sklansky accepts Daniel's offer, and because of this the Bellagio is so offended that they refuse to accept David's table game. How much do you want to bet that the Wynn will? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Now the Bellagio has lost an incredibly profitable opportunity (because that table game is guaranteed to appeal to people who like watching poker, want to be like the guys on TV, but dont feel like waiting hours for a seat at a table only to lose all their money in ten minutes because they dont know what theyre doing), and for the most braindead reason possible in the business world: hubris.

[DesertCat]

What college do you teach at? Cause your knowledge of the real world and business is sorely limited.

Well is David offering Bellagio an exclusive? I doubt it, it would reduce his potential market size dramatically. So it's reasonable the Bellagio could say what's the hurry? Let Sklansky launch it elsewhere and we'll see if it's successful before wasting time and money testing it here. Why should they help David when the Bellagio is fighting a life and death struggle over high limit poker with Wynn?

And remember, HL poker isn't so profitable in itself, but all those whales who drop by the Bellagio's craps and blackjack tables on their way to and from the HL tables are the lifeblood of the casino.

So the real question is, why should Sklansky take a chance pissing off the Bellagio while he's in the middle of a deal with them? So he can waste a few hours winning a few grand from Danny N? Even if you are guessing correctly, and the Bellagio mgmt turns out to be totally rational, the upside is trivial for David. If David were to believe there is even a small chance he could hurt his deal, his downside is very large.

What you are advocating is akin to betting big when you will only be called by a better hand. Only David knows what's really go on with the Bellagio and his project, and you may be right that he knows he has no risk in playing Danny. Short of that however, he should be very careful if this deal is as important as you claim.

[David Sklansky]

I didn't say I wouldn't play him at the Wynn. I just won't do it with media coverage. The Bellagio can take out my game before the trial is complete. It is a drop in the bucket to them regardless of how successful it might be.

As for my comments about Daniel's challenge, I keep trying to explain it is not truly a counter offer. Counter offers have the expectation of often being accepted. I was merely making precise what propositions I would most certainly not turn down. They need to be advantageous to me not only because Daniel plays well but also because of Kelly Criterian factors. In fact Kelly says that if there are no ancillary benefits involved, when Daniel does plays someone head up for the kind of money he is, BOTH players are probably being suckers.

[Jordan Olsommer]

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What college do you teach at? Cause your knowledge of the real world and business is sorely limited.

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Right off the bat with an ad hominem? That's not good. You should have at least saved it for the end [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Let Sklansky launch it elsewhere and we'll see if it's successful before wasting time and money testing it here.

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They already are testing it there.

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Why should they help David when the Bellagio is fighting a life and death struggle over high limit poker with Wynn?

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It has absolutely nothing to do with "helping David". Do you honestly think for one second that if the Bellagio's test of his table game found it to be unpopular/unprofitable that they'd still greenlight it because "aw hell, David's a swell guy"?

The Bellagio (or the Wynn, or the Mirage, or the Horseshoe) don't care about David (or Daniel, or Phil, or...the other Phil) only to the extent that it is profitable to do so. And of course that doesn't lead to the idea that they consider top poker players to be slave labor or any other ridiculous conclusion that someone who would go out of their way to misunderstand what I am saying ([img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]) could jump to - it simply means that they are a business and have shareholders to whom they are responsible and are looking to increase profits and market share. Nothing new here.

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And remember, HL poker isn't so profitable in itself, but all those whales who drop by the Bellagio's craps and blackjack tables on their way to and from the HL tables are the lifeblood of the casino.

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For a third time, if the Bellagio was so afraid of Mr. Sklansky playing a promotional event at another casino, they would have stipulated that he not do so in writing. I haven't heard a whole lot of fuming from the Bellagio about Mr. Sklansky's participation in the Heads-Up Poker Championship, which was held at (and promoted) the Golden Nugget casino. Or the Mirage Poker Showdown, for that matter.

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So the real question is, why should Sklansky take a chance pissing off the Bellagio while he's in the middle of a deal with them?

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Well, that's completely his call. All I'm saying is that this factor is hardly a papal bull against participating a) because it's in all likelihood not going to piss them off, and b) because even if it does get some of the management of Bellagio fuming, there's no way the rest of the Bellagio management (or shareholders) are going to be keen on turning down a profitable enterprise simply because their honor was offended. Which reminds me - you didn't even attempt to address my simple example. I'm offended; after I even centered it around your "taking a dump on a client's desk" scenario and everything [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

I'm not saying he should play Daniel or he shouldn't - it won't be televised so I'll get within epsilon of zero pleasure from the event if he does and I certainly won't lose anything if he doesn't - I'm simply saying that that's not particularly compelling if it's the primary reason he turned it down. (He could have just said "no").

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Only David knows what's really go on with the Bellagio and his project

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Very good point - it would behoove both of us (and whoever else bothers to read this exchange) to remember that we're only speculating here.

Again, I'm not saying your concerns aren't valid - I'm simply saying that it's a pretty crummy reason if it's given in the form of "oh man you would be SO busted at the poker table, if only I had this gentleman's agreement with the Bellagio which isn't really an agreement but more of a preference on my side" - a simple "no thanks" would have been orders of magnitude more efficient, in my humble opinion.

[David Sklansky]

"Again, I'm not saying your concerns aren't valid - I'm simply saying that it's a pretty crummy reason if it's given in the form of "oh man you would be SO busted at the poker table, if only I had this gentleman's agreement with the Bellagio which isn't really an agreement but more of a preference on my side" - a simple "no thanks" would have been orders of magnitude more efficient, in my humble opinion."

What are you talking about? I didn't back out from playing. I will happily to play the games I offered if it isn't used to promote a non MGM property. As for your words about business decisions, your generally correct point is wrong in this specific case. Offering to be the host of the initial 90 day trial is not something the Bellagio would ever do for a stranger they wouldn't like to do a favor for. The aggravation can't be worth it, given it is only one table and they can get all they want later.

[Jordan Olsommer]

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What are you talking about? I didn't back out from playing.

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I know - I was just saying that if that was the case (that you ended up backing out because of the choice of venue)
that that wouldn't be a particularly compelling reason for refusal. (however, I've changed my opinion on this matter in light of your comment below)

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As for your words about business decisions, your generally correct point is wrong in this specific case. Offering to be the host of the initial 90 day trial is not something the Bellagio would ever do for a stranger they wouldn't like to do a favor for. The aggravation can't be worth it, given it is only one table and they can get all they want later.

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This I was not aware of; I had presumed that the Bellagio agreed to be the testing ground for the table game for some sort of quid-pro-quo (e.g. they accept it and if it works they get a 'monopoly' on hosting it for x number of days or something). But if the entire testing process is along the the lines of a favor for a friend, then it would definitely not be kosher to do anything that upsets that arrangement. The only thing I'm still confused about is if the arrangement is so, then why weren't they mad about your participating in tournaments that were televised in part to promote other casinos?

[David Sklansky]

"The only thing I'm still confused about is if the arrangement is so, then why weren't they mad about your participating in tournaments that were televised in part to promote other casinos?"

I'm surprised that you don't see the significant difference between being one of many that participates in a poker tournament in a downtown hotel that can't touch the Bellagio, compared to a major media event involving their biggest competition that might not happen if it wasn't for me.

[Jordan Olsommer]

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I'm surprised that you don't see the significant difference between being one of many that participates in a poker tournament in a downtown hotel that can't touch the Bellagio, compared to a major media event involving their biggest competition that might not happen if it wasn't for me.

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Fair enough; I was not aware the Golden Nugget and Mirage were that far behind in contention (well, I could have guessed that the Golden Nugget wasn't exactly neck-and-neck with the Bellagio, I suppose. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])