Theoretically, how long can a bad run of cards last?

bobby rooney · #1 05-14-2005, 04:57 PM

For the past couple of months, I just seem to be a bad beat magnet. I'm not really trolling for sympathy, mostly I'm interested in what the longest losing streak many of you have had and any theories on how long one can continually get their money in with the best of it and lose. I've examined my play for leaks and found some minor ones that have sprung as a result of running bad, but considering I've lost most of the money in hands where I was 70-95% to win on the flop(for ex. top or middle set vs. straight and flush draws), I know I SHOULD be winning.

Also, I've usually heard that 20-40 buyins should be enough bankroll for NL, and until now thought that was about right, but I'm beginning to wonder if that is enough to survive when that mother of all bad streaks comes. Anybody want to share what they consider to be adequate bankroll for NL?

Thanks for any responses.

Rotating Rabbit · #2 05-14-2005, 05:14 PM

Theoretically, for ever.

Go_Blue88 · #3 05-14-2005, 07:02 PM

Ya, I mean it could last forever considering that in those situations that you describe your opponent has some chance of winning the pot. But it won't. Although I guess this prolly seems obvious, if you continue to get your money in with the best hand each time, in the long run you're going to come out ahead. Normally when I have big downswings, eventually I have big upswings that put me ahead for the week. So, I'm sure you'll have a big upswing soon if you keep playing...also, I don't know how the hell you can lose more than 20 buy ins in a downswing...if that happens I'm pretty sure that you're playing at limits that are too high for you. I play shorthanded, but I like to have b/w 20-30 buy ins.

theben · #4 05-14-2005, 07:36 PM

for me, my longest losing steak was over about 3,000 hands. but thats not very long compared some REAL losing steaks players have had here.

ggbman · #5 05-14-2005, 08:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
for me, my longest losing steak was over about 3,000 hands. but thats not very long compared some REAL losing steaks players have had here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Keep playing. It will be many times that soon enough.

Dr. Strangelove · #6 05-14-2005, 09:11 PM

Theoretically, 8 days is the longest a losing streak can last.

bobby rooney · #7 05-14-2005, 09:15 PM

Yeah, it's pretty hard to lose 20 buyins at NL, until you get top or middle set cracked by str8 and flush draws (sometimes runner runner) about 20 times in a row. It's really to the point of the absurd. I know it has to turn around, but it turns out the long run is a LOT longer than I previously thought.

bobby rooney · #8 05-14-2005, 09:17 PM

lol, I wish that were true.

kagame · #9 05-14-2005, 09:52 PM

ive lost eight of my last ten huge all ins at least a 60% favorite each time, probably an average of a 75% fav. sets or overpairs v draws.

i am only down 3 buy ins for this time frame.

it takes more that terrible beats to go on a huge downswing.

theben · #10 05-14-2005, 10:58 PM

indeed it does take a lot. on the day i had my worst mathematical beat of all time (flopped nut full, beaten by runner-runner quads on a catch perfect) i had also just gotten about 2/3's of a stack busted on a drawout. despite that, i was still up on the day.

it takes a lot of continual ridiculous beats (2 outers, pair over pair, etc), as well as lots of small drawouts (ie, every flush hits) to create a real bad losing streak---or at least some of those types of beats combined w/ cold cards to create a prolonged streak. yet these things can swing real bad, pile up, and not stop for what seems like a lifetime