Postflop Hand Quiz- Everyone join in

[fflyer]

I don't see how it can ever be correct to fold in this situation when you are being offered thirteen to one to stay in. The choice is whether to call or raise, and I think that the decision is actually quite a close one. Clearly you have the pot odds to call the bet here, but the question whether you have the odds to raise is less clear cut. On the face of it you have five outs, which means that you have odds of just over eight to one against improving on the turn. If you invest two SBs by raising, you are reducing your pot odds by half from thirteen to one to 6.5 to one before adjustment for implied odds. You therefore need good implied odds to make it mathematically correct to raise. Given that you might well be drawing almost dead (against AK, AA, KK) the mathematical justification for raising becomes even more problematic. The other question you have to ask yourself is what hands will fold to a raise that might beat you on the turn. Anyone with KQ should be making the same mathematical calculation that you are, and may well call even if you raise the flop. Anyone with AJ is not going to be folding in a hurry either. Pocket pairs do not have the odds to draw even if you just call the first bet. How likely is it that anyone with ace rag will fold? People who limp with that sort of garbage tend to stay in to the bitter end. I guess you might knock out J10 or QJ, but that only benefits you if you are ahead of the BB. The more I think about it, the more I am inclined just to call and see what happens on the turn.

[Zoelef]

Disclaimer: Really Weak-Tight

There are odds to continue in terms of two pair/trips alone, so folding is horrible. That said, I can't think of a good reason to raise with 2PGK, so I'd call, looking to c/f UI on the turn.

[walkdoc]

Grunching

You have to re-raise this or fold outright. If BB pops it back then fold. I screwed up a second pair like this just last nigth agains an Ace w/ a weak kicker. Not sure he would have folded, but my feeling is he probably would have.
I hate it when that happens! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[brazilio]

Raise or fold is the dumbest thing I've heard yet. And you're deluding yourself if you think top pair with a weak kicker will ever fold.

[jrz1972]

I don't understand why people are raising this. There is almost no chance that you're ahead here. A raise is unlikely to buy you outs; there are very few hands that are folding here that you're actually worried about. With many opponents yet to act, a raise is more likely than usual to beget a 3-bet, which you really really don't want.

I would fold this before I raise. I seem to have 5 outs, but some or all of those outs could be tainted. If I were closing the action, it would still be a no-brainer to pay 1 sb to see the turn, but I'm not closing the action and this is the kind of board that has likely hit more than one opponent.

All things considered, I call this planning to fold if its two bets back to me. I'm probably folding the turn UI as well.

[glean]

Without looking at the other posts I would reraise with no reads. If anyone else shows agro you are done with the hand. I figure the bb is as likly as not to be making a scare you outa your money bet, and with everyone in the pot is fairly large. It's worth a small bet to try and steal the initiative imho. If no one re-raises but he bets out on the turn I would fold this unimproved. If re-raised I would take it as a sign from god and fold. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Entity]

I really think raising here is spewing. If you're raising, I think you're paying 3SB's upwards of 70% of the time, but you're raising to fold exactly QT here (the only outs you can clean up are Jack outs -- K outs aren't really cleanable here unless you think KQ exactly is out here and will fold to a raise, which is a fairly difficult parlay for your hand).

I know we've all got the "raise, it's a big pot and we might be ahead anyway" mantra in our heads, but the chances we're ahead on this flop are minimal, and the chances that raising significantly improves our chances of winning are pretty bad.

I think folding this flop is far better than raising, and calling might be slightly more +EV than folding.

This is why we don't play KJo UTG.

Rob

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
1 raise
2 fold
3 call

1 you got mid pair good kicker and a runner straight draw
improve your chances by cleaning up your J outs
2 dont feel like its coming? dont just call thats weak. just leave now.
3 call. you weak tighty. go hang out with shillx.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fuji,

I really think raising sucks here. I'm going to go do some math to double-check it, but I hate a raise here.

Rob

[glean]

I guess this is probably due to the fact that I play .25/.50 games but in a typical game I wouldn't be suprized to see all thies guys fold/cold call and show down with trash. I wouldn't pay the 3rd bet, would fold to a re-raise. I'm sure at higher limits the majority of thies ppl would have a piece of this flop, at my lvl they are in there with any two cards. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Maybe I just have a gift for finding horible tables.

[jrz1972]

Raising and then folding to a reraise is probably the worst imaginable line. If you raise (which is a mistake IMO), you have to call a reraise.