Adams' book, page 70: folding on fifth street with two pair - Page 2

King Yao · #11 05-12-2005, 03:13 PM

Thanks beta. Using your assumptions, the player with 8s and 4s only has a 18% equity in the pot.

Thanks.

SittingBull · #12 05-12-2005, 04:50 PM

CORRECT.
SittingBull

King Yao · #13 05-12-2005, 05:05 PM

If you show me why its correct, I will be able to apply it to other similar problems. If you just tell me its correct, and if I follow that advice, I'm apt to make other mistakes that I could have avoided if I knew "why".

I think the crux of the problem boils down to "How likely is it that the J-T-J player has a pair, a T or a J in the hole?" It looks like my original estimation of 20% was way off the mark. What do you think?

berya · #14 05-12-2005, 06:20 PM

I must say that most of the time I would muck the hand on 5th but now looking at the numbers I'm strongly reconsidering this strategy. Based on your assumptions it looks like a clear call to me. Even at 35% i'm getting a close call. And I do not think he will have two pair or better more than 35% of the time.

SittingBull · #15 05-13-2005, 07:28 PM

relative to the bet or to future bets, a fold is better than a call EVEN if has just an overpair. He is LIKEly to improve while u remain with ur 2 underpairs. Sure,U can improve too.But if he connects on 5th,he is NOT that far behind with 2 overPrs. U really don't know for any degree of certainty if he does NOT have a set.
He is most likely to have 2 Pr. than trips. If so,his are bigger than yours on 4th. According to Sklansky and Malmuth,if one hits his door card on an early round,Oppo. should FOLD MOST of the time.
Threre are just too many ways u can sink with your underpr.Calling is OK only if all ur cards are live AND the pot is VERY LARGE on 4th. But that is an exception.
HappyPokering, [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
SittingBull