TT gets a little funky

[cnfuzzd]

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Sounds good, thanks for taking the time to get into things a bit more.

So, assuming we're all happy with the flop play, what do you do on the turn when a harmless card comes (say like a 6) and the BB bets into you again? I'm guessing that if BB had bet out with our current turn card, you would call looking for you gutshot.

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Had the BB bet into me on the turn, and i not had a caller inbetween us, i would probably raise since there is a decent chance my hand is good, and if not i have some suckout potential. On a pure blank, i would probably still raise, but that depends on who was left in the hand.

peace

john nickle

[Harv72b]

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To those that want a flop raise, i would ask what exactly that gets you.

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As you said, raising gives the two opponents yet to act 9.5:1 odds to call with the possibility of a 3-bet & cap behind them; that makes it incorrect to call with 1 overcard (i.e., AJ, KTs, etc), which protects your hand. Given the 2-suited nature of the flop, it also makes it difficult to justify calling with a gutshot as you can't really count on all 4 of your outs there. You gain an excellent shot at buying the button, allowing you more flexibility in your turn decision. Finally, waiting to pop the turn is not always going to work as there are a bajillion cards which can come that cause BB to check (not to mention, would he bet if your hand is best?).

If I had JcTc, I would absolutely call with a gutshot + flush draw; I might even 3-bet for value depending on how the flop went down. If I were faced with 2 bets cold while holding something like JhTh then I might call based on my reads on you & the BB, but it would be a very borderline call at best.

[Absolute]

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To those that want a flop raise, i would ask what exactly that gets you. You potentially have the best hand, however, there is already an overcard out, plus three others can fall that make your hand very difficult. You have a percieved aggressive pf raiser betting into you, and the worst odds you can offer to those behind you are 9.5:1, which would make their calls still correct. Worse yet, assuming BB is not overplaying his hand or someone is slowplaying a Q, a flop raise can open you up to a turn raise/checkraise that you are probably still going to have to call given you will still be getting odds to draw to your set, especially if the turn card gives you some sort of straight draw, which probably also means it connects with your opponents hand. Finally, if you are behind, you are probably getting the implied odds to draw to your 2 outer, especially with a couple of players that like to not fold. However, a flop raise can easily kill your implied odds, plus, if its successfull, it can eliminate players from the pot who might put in bets later in the hand if you make a bigger hand.

Lets say you, as a knowledgable player, somehow ended up with JcTc on this flop. Even if faced with a flop raise from UTG1, wouldnt you call for your gutshot odds? Now imagine the decision from the perspective of a typical loose player. Of course they are calling my flop raise with just about anything.

There is an argument to be made about charging your opponents overcard draws as much as possible, but i dont think it holds water when the field, who if they are calling for one bet will probably just as likely call for two, has so many collective outs against you when you are behind.

peace

john nickle

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well said john.

[Kailia Marie]

Hi John,

Your notion that players will get a right price to call a raise on the flop so your line is better is not entirely correct in what you're trying to say. The whole point of a raise, if you so chose to do it on this flop, would be to let your opponents make mistakes by folding incorrectly. Your assumption that because they are getting 9.5-1 they will call isn't always the case. Part of "protecting your hand" isn't just to lay bad odds for your opponnents, it's also to make them pass up on good odds as well.

Also your claim is based on assumption that your opponents actually know what their outs are and how many of them they have. Suppose a player has two clean overcards to your tens and he sees the two prelfop aggressors bet and raise, how often will he credit himself with a full pair outs, especially if he has a jack and also they realize that there's a strong possibility that they may have to pay a third and a fourth bet on this flop as well and may not want to chase a seemingly undesirable 4 outer despite getting an immediate 9.5-1.

Sorry, I was just nitpicking, but you can understand what I'm saying. It's just that the expression "They have correct odds to call" is used so much here, yet nobody ever talks about the other side of the coin, getting them to incorrectly fold, which despite being on Party, they will do from time to time.

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Kailia