10's ITM in party 30k guar. - Push, fold, or stop and go? - Page 2

bruce · #11 05-12-2005, 11:49 AM

Let's look at hands MP3 may raise with. These include two
paints, Ace King down to Ace Ten/Nine and pocket pairs from sevens to Aces. I believe if you add up all the combinations you are going to win around half the time if not more. Your best chance of winning the tournament is to push and take your chances.

Bruce

bruce · #12 05-12-2005, 11:50 AM

I have seen enough idiots on Stars who will fold their hand when you push even though they have great odds to call, so that's a better reason to push.

Bruce

tiger7210 · #13 05-12-2005, 12:44 PM

I don't know about the rest of you, but I make MP3s raise with a hand a lot worse than TT's against a habitual limper trying to steal his limp plus the blinds when I have a healthy stack like that.

For me to fold here MP3 would have to be uber tight which is not what I have gotten from Remens post. I gather MP3 is a bit weak/passive so any raise would indicate strenght but does that have to mean bigger pair.

At this point in the tourny, if you won't take a flip, when will you?

Our hero has stated he wants to get deep and that means he has to get a double up.

Now I certainly believe a stop and go is the best route if not for the limper, but with the limper now probably calling, there is too good a chance that 1 of them hits the flop which is why I would push now.

For those who say to fold, what would you push here with his stack size? Folding TT's with 10x BB in my opinion is just was too weak/tight. Hero can't sit around and get blinded to death if he wants to make the FT.

Seadood228 · #14 05-12-2005, 12:50 PM

You don't need a hand, just push when you have a decent amount of FE. If you are called you are probably a less of a dog than you are against a tight raiser's likely range of hands, a hand that you have virtually no folding equity against.

marrek · #15 05-12-2005, 12:59 PM

I would fold here and wait for a better spot to double up. MP3 has a big stack and may decide to gamble on race, but will definately call with a bigger pair.

There's no reason to think MP3 is weak, so you have to consider the likely hood of him calling. Personally, i wouldn't want a race in your situation ( assuming UTG folds) If utg overcalls your all in, you are in very bad shape.

Marrek

remen · #16 05-12-2005, 03:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Unless he's not a good player, he has to have a higher pocket. There's an off chance he might have Ak, Aq, but unlikely with that small raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think he has to have an overpair to my tens? In my original post I said his raise probably means strength, but not a monster. I believe the MP3 would raise here after the habitual limper with AT-AK, 77-AA, and KQ possibly. Against this range, tens are a favorite. Mucking tens to his raise when I am a favorite against his range of hands and I have some fold equity and overlay from the pot seems like the worst option by far to me.

tiger7210 · #17 05-12-2005, 05:02 PM

I have never seen so many weak/tight replies in one thread for the amount who say fold here.

I also don't think you have as much FE as some have suggested unless MP3 is weak/tight as your push means he needs to call 9k into a pot of 21K. So he's getting better than 2-1 against a player with 10x BB. so your FE is all relative to how tight this player.

I still stand by my opinion to push here as I only like a stop and go if you're fairly certain MP1 folds after the raise and call. If you've seen MP1 limp, call, fold then I think you have to push him out to get this HU as TT's is just not strong enough all in against 2 opponents.

schwza · #18 05-12-2005, 05:11 PM

i like a call pre-flop. MP1 will very likely call. that's not a disaster. there's a good chance he has at least one card under T, so it's not too bad to let him put some more money in. then i push any flop that has

- no ace
- at most 1 of KQJ
- no T (c/r)

remen · #19 05-12-2005, 07:48 PM

What's your course of action if the flop comes with an ace or two paint? I don't really like calling off 1/3 of my stack and check/folding on so many flops. I can understand folding on the flop if all 3 cards are higher than 10, but other than that I think pushing any other flop is a must. Getting JJ-KK to fold on an A high flop is part of what makes a stop and go such a good play.

Also, MP1 had been folding to raises after limping so far, so I don't think he will call the raise even if I do.

tiger7210 · #20 05-12-2005, 09:44 PM

I think the point of the stop and go is to push any flop regardless of what is on it. The flop may come AKx and your push may get QQ/JJ/KJ/KQ to fold. I don't think you can allow villain a continuation bet which could be a pair of 77-99 on Axx flop or KJx.

Before you flat call PF you have to make that decision or you may as well fold PF or play it to hit your set and fold since you really have no info by flat calling and no manueverability post flop.