T9s turn

[wildwood]

What range of hands is the BB likely to put Nate on after Nate's flop raise?

[GetThere1Time]

Assuming BB thinks that much.

Maybe BB puts Nate on AK and c/r's the turn with pocket 2's.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
What range of hands is the BB likely to put Nate on after Nate's flop raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably pretty important.

Particularily, if the BB assumes Nate would NOT be betting a draw on the turn.

[gaming_mouse]

I check too, for reasons already stated. He is not folding his J, and perhaps not folding a pocket pair either. He is not folding a draw, and betting here for the river setup (hoping that he does have a draw) costs too much to be made up for by the times you're successful.

[CallMeIshmael]

I would check it at 2/4...

but, I am not willing to rule out that at 15/30 this could be +EV.

I dont know how often you can get a J or smaller pocket pair to fold / set up a profitable river bet.

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What range of hands is the BB likely to put Nate on after Nate's flop raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably pretty important.

Particularily, if the BB assumes Nate would NOT be betting a draw on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking about this right as I submitted my last reply. And, I think that is the key.

BB, thinking that Nate raised PF with a reasonable hand, may fold PPs after the flop aggression, if followed through on. The PF raise makes it more likely Nate has a Q/J/big pair. The only thing that BB can think he beats is AK/AT at this point, and a lot of players would lay down 77 here.

-d

[NomadCat]

Without a read, I think I take my free card here and nail an 8 on the river.

I guess if I think of this logically, though, he probably leads this with a draw (KT, 9T) to trap the field and not a pair; he'd probably checkraise to thin the field with those. If I were to follow with this assumption, I'd bet the turn (pray I don't get checkraised) and bet the river provided it's a blank and hope to fold-out a K-high.

[imported_stealthcow]

i think reasons to bet again here are folding equity and trying to get a cheap river. if you had 3rd pair and the straight draw, i'd be much more inclined to bet out.

given that if you check behind, the rivers a blank and he bets it is an easy fold, i think you want the free turn instead of a free river.

also, this is to say nothing of the possiblilty if getting c/r on the turn and having to put in 2 bets with a draw and 2 undercards.

stealthcow-

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
also, this is to say nothing of the possiblilty if getting c/r on the turn and having to put in 2 bets with a draw and 2 undercards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or the possibility of betting, getting called, missing on the river, then betting to try and steal the pot. Or, are you checking behind a missed draw? I *never* do this, maybe I should.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
also, this is to say nothing of the possiblilty if getting c/r on the turn and having to put in 2 bets with a draw and 2 undercards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or the possibility of betting, getting called, missing on the river, then betting to try and steal the pot. Or, are you checking behind a missed draw? I *never* do this, maybe I should.

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting the turn with the intention of showing down UI is not good.

Its probably good that you never check the river UI here (after betting the turn)