Late Hand in tourney

[ThorKGB]

As a newbie to tourneys, i would appreciate input on what to do in this hand.

Its late in a 2000G 10$ buy-in at UB, we are 14 left. Places 11-20 pays 20d, nr 10 40d and nr about 500. Im one of the smallstacks as nr 11 in the following situation:

Powered by UltimateBet 11.05.2005 14:54
Started at 11/May/05 14:54:04
heybuddddddy is at seat 0 with 11485.
dfscottus is at seat 3 with 12690.
RadRacingCru is at seat 4 with 20765.
triley is at seat 5 with 13655.
ThorKGB is at seat 6 with 14420.
redsoxrule69 is at seat 7 with 44725.
PSU CHEF is at seat 8 with 31220.
The button is at seat 3.


heybuddddddy posts ante (125).
dfscottus posts ante (125).
RadRacingCru posts ante (125).
triley posts ante (125).
ThorKGB posts ante (125).
redsoxrule69 posts ante (125).
PSU CHEF posts ante (125).
The button is moved to seat 4.
triley posts the small blind of 600.
ThorKGB posts the big blind of 1200.
heybuddddddy, at seat 0, is in this hand.
dfscottus, at seat 3, is in this hand.
RadRacingCru, at seat 4, is in this hand.
triley, at seat 5, is in this hand.
ThorKGB, at seat 6, is in this hand.
redsoxrule69, at seat 7, is in this hand.
PSU CHEF, at seat 8, is in this hand.



ThorKGB is dealt: 5d 2d

Pre-flop:
redsoxrule69 folds.
PSU CHEF folds.
heybuddddddy folds.
dfscottus folds.
RadRacingCru calls.
triley folds.
ThorKGB checks.

flop card: Ac
flop card: 4d
flop card: Qd
Flop (board: Ac 4d Qd):
ThorKGB checks.
RadRacingCru bets 2000.

[Kristian]

It is a choice between folding and pushing. Assuming a diamond will win you the hand, you have a roughly 50% chance to win it (13 outs) if he calls. But you have to think there is a good chance he will fold.
Personally, I am pushing this one.

[flopquints]

Worst case scenario, this fellow (he is button right?) is playing a suited ace of diamonds and has the flush draw as well. I don't put him on this, because acting late I think with Ax (especially suited and this deep in the tourney) he executes a blind steal. His just call makes me think Q-10, Q-J, and further he is assuming that as the big blind who checked there is nothing to fear from that Ace. If he has a Q, he obviously doesnt have 4diamonds, and he wouldve raised with AQ, so he doesnt have two pair. I like thirteen outs here, 3 to the straight and 9 to the flush(3d counts once. You didnt say what the blinds were, but I bet this late in the tourney the pot odds would be in your favor with a 48% chance of hitting your draw, probably heavily in your favor. I dont raise here because if he has flopped miracle trip 4s or something, I'm not looking to go broke with this busted draw. I also don't raise because if he has flopped a strong hand he might try to take you all in on the flop. Pay to see the card. I call and see another card, and probably call again when he bets 5k on ther turn. He might not bet the turn though, because I DO NOT think he has the ace here, and your call is going to make him wonder if his hand is best. I think you have to play to win the tourney, and if you hit your draw there is an outside chance of doubling through him, especially if he does have trip 4s. I call here, and if he pushes me all in on the turn after it bricks, then there is a very difficult decision to make. However, I assume the pot odds are there to make this call, and that he is just firing at this pot wuth the queens, or a gutshot or something (KJ??). His limp is confusing. Bottom line, I don't put him on the ace or the flush draw, so I think you have to go with a draw, especially with 13 outs.

[ismisus]

if the guy is passive (i.e he actually has a hand when he bets) then just call. If the guy is aggressive (i.e genius), then push all in. Even if you get called, you still got 13 outs. Most likely though, if your read is right, he folds, you win, and you don't post here.

[Kristian]

As you pointed out, the 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is only one out, so there are only 12 outs, giving you a 25% chance of hitting your draw on the turn. So you do not have the pot odds to call (pay 2000 for a ~2700+2000 pot) unless you assume that you will not have to pay heavily for the river or that villain will pay your made flush, both long shots in my opinion.
I like to be aggresive in this situation, and play the other guys fear of going broke just short of the big money.

[ QUOTE ]
I also don't raise because if he has flopped a strong hand he might try to take you all in on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously, raising with anything else than a push is out of the question.

[ QUOTE ]
He might not bet the turn though, because I DO NOT think he has the ace here, and your call is going to make him wonder if his hand is best. I think you have to play to win the tourney...

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right he is going to wonder, and he will wonder more if you go all in. Even in the very unlikely event he has a set, you still have a ~40% chance of winning. Pushing also sends a message to the rest of the table. Just short of the final table, nothing gets respect like a guy who is not afraid of taking you all in.
Additionally being 11 out of 14, you have to make something happen sooner or later, and you are not likely to get better shots than this.

[Kristian]

[ QUOTE ]
I call here, and if he pushes me all in on the turn after it bricks, then there is a very difficult decision to make.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, it will not be difficult. You will have to fold, and that sucks.

[ismisus]

you're ignoring implied odds. If you call, most likely he will bet the turn, thus getting more value for your money. From then on you can value-call your nuts

[Kristian]

No i am not. I was saying you did not have the pot odds unless you assumed that villain would pay your flush, or that you would get a cheap/free river, which I considered a long shot considering villains most likely range of hands.
In other words I didn't think the implied odds necessarily were much better than the actual pot odds. It might be wrong, but that's what I thought [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[momo24]

What is your read on button? Limping on the button when it's folded to you is a strange play. If he usually raises in blind-stealing situations, I'd be worried that he limped because he has a big hand and would rather get action from the blinds than just steal them. If this is the case, your push on the flop has almost no fold equity, which makes push/fold a difficult decision.

If you've seen him limp before in positions like this, and you read it to mean he has a marginal hand that he'd like to see a cheap flop with, then your fold equity + your flush draw seem to favor a push on the flop.

Of course, if I had this read on the button (the limp meant marginal hand), I'd probably push preflop here. Anyone else take this line?

[2005]

You have 12 outs. I'm pushing.