My TruePoker WSOP 120K Hand Challenge - update # 2

[TruePoker CEO]

We agree and expect to continue to realize both direct and collateral benefits.....

We are willing to discuss proposals which are as well thought out and fairly balanced as ODoyle's.

We believe that 2+2 posters offer a wealth of ideas and information we can benefit from. Some posters are reasonable business people, whereas some are not.

If you have something to discuss, please email me at management@truepoker.com.

(We are not looking for one-sided "sponsor me in the WSOP" proposals, however. We need to see some upside beyond, "everyone will se me in your shirt when I am in Las Vegas ..." Hey, we will GIVE away shirts during the WSOP.)

Truepoker CEO

[krishanleong]

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Loc: getting married June 4th

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Congratulations.

Are you still providing the data mining service 15-30 and 30-60?.

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Thanks! I'm excited. Yes, I'm still in the mining business.

Krishan

[Derek in NYC]

Suggestion #1: I have never played on TruePoker before so ignore if this comment showcases my ignorance. If you want to attract high volume players, as a first step you need to make sure that your platform is compatible with Pokertracker. If it is not, you should work with Pat at PT to have him develop support for Truepoker. Nobody can be a successful high volume player without PT.

[krishanleong]

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Agreed, but Im assuming that his natural win rate is more than $37 per 8941 hands. It is not impossible to be breakeven over 9000 hands, but it is hard to do.

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You are significantly underestimating variance.

Krishan

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This is a canard. At 9000 hands, while your win rate is far from accurate, it is directionally correct, barring some six-sigma variance. If somebody here posted a "checkup stats" after 9000 hands and was breakeven, we would all say that he needed to go back and re-assess his game, starting by reviewing the 500 most money-losing hands to see whether wicked-bad variance was the root cause, or whether he was making more fundamental errors. At 10k hands, in most cases, you will know directionally whether you are generally breakeven to profitable, or money losing.

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I think we agree. I've had 340BB downswings. At 2 BB/100 it takes 17000 hands to get back to break even. This is a game I am a likely a 2 BB winner at.

A standard 150 BB downswing takes 7.5K hands to erase.

I don't think 9K breakeven stretches are as unusual as you are making it out to be.

In O'Doyles case I think it's likely that he is taking on more than he is use to and is not playing optimally.

Krishan

[The Monk]

Hi Derek, What you have to take into consideration is on a 1/2 table at True Poker less than 1/2 the hands will be raked. Playing mostly at full tables approximately 45% of the hands will be raked. This is a very accurate statistic as I have logged many many hands. Having said this the actual rake back OD is receiving is over 20 cents/hand since all he has to do is play 120K hands NOT raked hands. The offer is the most generous offer I have ever seen.
Considering other sites like Party give you ZERO for playing I would consider Dave's offer never to be matched. Hope he stays in business for many years to come.

[O Doyle Rules]

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Hands Needed: 120,000
Hands Played: 8,941
Hands Left: 111,059

Estimated Hours: 329
Hours Played: 24.5
Hours to go: 304.5

Winnings/Losings: + 37.00


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I wish you luck in your quest, but I can't possibly see how this is +EV. Either your cards are sucking bigtime, or your winrate from the multiple tables/long sessions is seriously degraded. Basically, after 24 hours of play, you are flat. Not impossible that it is variance related, but likely the result of subpar play. You need to improve your winrate.

For me, the hurdle rate for success would be a standard 5/10SH game, in normal doses and with a normal number of tables, earning a good W/R of 2.5 - 3 BBs/100 hands (achievable but difficult). After 120,000 hands, your earn should be around $30000 to $36000. Now add on standard rakeback of 7.5 cents per hand or so, and you've got an extra $9000. Total hurdle rate: $39k - $45k. If the value of your WSOP package plus your natural earnings is lower than this rate, I deem the experiment a failure.

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For you Derek, if you are a 3 BB/100 winner at the 5/10 SH game you would not want to do this, I agree.

I am not. My longest documented winrate is for over 300,000 hands of 3/6 and that is 1.6 BB/100. Assuming I would play 120,000 hands of 3/6 over the same time period at that win rate would equal $ 11,520 in winnings. Would I then spend my 11,520 to play in the WSOP. NO.

I had already stated my play has been far from optimal. (Hey, I raised 4K suited not once but twice, thinking I was holding AK suited)

My main focus and only focus to this point has been to raise the number of hands I can possibly play per hour. That sometimes means I have to mix and match limits and games just to get in the maximum number of hands I can play.

This will be a success to me if I just complete the challenge and win the seat.

One man's success is another man's failure.

[O Doyle Rules]

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I deem the experiment a failure

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I seems to me that the actual experiment was seeing if he could, as an individual high volume player, successfully negotiate his own player incentive. Its a success, and its not even close.

Stu

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Stu,

You are 100% correct. It was all about seeing if a pokersite would negotiate directly with a high volume player for his play. This is about me, but not about me at all. I am looking at the big picture and hopefully through this effort and through the effort of individuals like yourself (your proposed player's association) it will improve all high volume player's bottom line, even the ones who deem such experiments a failure.

[Schwartzy61]

I just discovered this thread and the original challenge thread and think this is awesome for O'Doyle and TruePoker but what about O'Doyle's actual job.

Anyone else think his productivity at his real job is taking a definite nose dive while he plays 50 or so hours of poker per week?

[SinSixer]

While you may be incidentally correct that O'Doyles winrate over these 11k hands is due to poor play, your use of statistics is completely wrong.

Breaking even over 9,000 hands is quite normal. If this streak occured over 2 weeks time playing a casual game at Party Poker it would not be abnormal or outstanding at all.

[HopeydaFish]

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Thanks.

You wrote "I'll keep my money on deposit as long as there's a steady stream of "chum."

Truepoker advertises every day for new players on CHUM Radio in Canada.

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It works...that's how I found the site originally. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

There was a pretty large number of tables going last night all of a sudden. Usually there's 2 5/10's, 3 or 4 3/6's, 3 or 4 2/4's, and a bunch of 1/2's. Last night there seemed to be much more than that -- especially in the 5/10 tables. It was nice to see, because most of the new players were pretty fishy.