Live 4/8, flush draw facing two bets cold on the turn

[belloc]

A 4/8 hand I played this afternoon at the local cardroom:

The table is mostly passive, in general fairly loose, with two tighter players to my right (that don't figure in this hand). MP2 is decent but a bit too passive, MP3 is pretty new, but I've seen him call down some mediocre hands, and Button is very loose-passive preflop, and aggressive postflop, especially on the big bet streets.

I hold A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in UTG+1.

UTG folds, I call, MP1 folds, MP2 raises, MP3 coldcalls two bets, CO folds, Button coldcalls two bets, blinds fold, I call one more bet. Four to the flop for 8 SB.

Flop comes down J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I check intending to fold, but it gets checked around. I'm suspicious, because paired boards have rarely gotten checked through in my three hours at this table. Usually somebody tries to buy it. Four to the turn for 4 BB.

Turn: K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check, thinking that if someone slowplayed trips, I don't want them to wake up and face the field with two bets. I'm hoping to get all three opponents to come along with me to see the river for one bet. MP2 bets, but then MP3 raises. Then Button cold calls two bets. I'm faced with two bets in a 9 BB pot (10 BB if you think MP2 will call). So it looks like I'm barely getting the 5:1 I need to see the river drawing to 9 outs.

But the board is paired, three opponents seem pretty excited about their hands, and I'm not closing the betting (MP2, the PF raiser could come back over the top).

What should my action be here? (Results later.)

[shadow29]

I think that you can safely fold this.

You have to discount your J outs, so you actually have 8 outs, getting 4.5:1. But I think that there will be more raising behind you and therefore I wouldn't be surprised if you would have to pay 3 bets to see the river. And you would have to fold anything but a diamond on the river.

[rmarotti]

Easy Fold.

[belloc]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

If it's an easy fold for Rich, it's an easy fold for anyone. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

But what was all that you told me about an hour ago about how you're "not folding this draw in a live game," Mr. Pooh-bah?

[rmarotti]

Heh heh. I'm busted. I've played in the club where this hand took place and the players, with one or two obvious exceptions, are atrocious. MP3's raise here could mean a 6 or JJ, but it's just as likely to mean a king, a jack, ace high, or that raising is fun. This hand is interesting because at that club, with those players, I'm calling two cold here pretty much every time. When the hand is presented more or less in vacuo, though, it appears like a fairly easy fold.

I don't have too much more to say about this, but it's certainly an interesting observation about live play and situational reads. At this card club I think all of hero's A outs are probably good and any non-pairing diamond is certainly good, with the possibility that a diamond jack is also good.

[Catt]

I'll be contrary and say that this is not an easy fold and that I would call this without thinking too hard on it.

You've described MP2 as a bit too passive; MP3 as calling down mediocre hands; and Button as aggressive postflop. I'd expect (and obviously hope) that MP2 just calls the raise and doesn't reopen the betting. Button, our aggressive postflop player, has only cold-called throughout -- I'd bet dollars to donuts that he is on a flush draw and we dominate him. We're getting either 4.5:1 or more liekly 5:1 on a 4.75:1 draw (if we discount the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] fully, as I agree is prudent -- we don't need 5:1, we only need 4.1:1 if we are drawing to 9 outs). In the worst case scenario the turn gets capped and we're only getting 4:1 and need to make up 3BBs on the river to make this a profitable call -- something that I think is not too unlikely. This river will present a good opportunity to C/R at least one and possibly two river bettors (I can see MP3 betting, and Button either raising or going for overcalls), or we can decide to go for overcalls if MP3 checks and Button bets.

But all this is a worst case scenario, and frankly MP2 doesn't sound like he's likely to get in a raising war on the turn and I think we'll get decent action on the river if we hit. I'm in favor of calling, but wouldn't describe folding as horrible -- I just think calling is better.

[Catt]

I neglected to mention that if my read is correct and Button is on a flush draw that our drawing odds are a bit worse, and we'd want 6.66:1. This makes the call less clear, though I still make it with your read on MP2. If there were a significant chance of it getting 3-bet and capped, I'd lean more towards a fold and might even call it an easy fold!

[belloc]

I tend to agree: neither decision is horrible. Two factors led me to fold this hand: 1) in sticky situations I tend rather toward weak tightness than to anything else, and 2) it was the second to last hand of a session, and I wanted to go out with those two bets in my pocket and not leave them on the table. I know, your next hand of poker is your next hand of poker, yadda yadda, but I wasn't feeling good about the call, so I laid it down.

River is the 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], MP2 turns over AKo, MP3 turns over K7o, and Button shows some random 6x. I was right about the slowplay checkaround on the flop anyway.

Folding the eventual best hand is never fun, but in this case, I don't think the fold is bad; arguments can be made both ways.