mini step 3 bubble hand

Che · #1 05-08-2005, 02:55 AM

mini step 3, 3 left

top 2 advance, third gets a replay at step 3

Blinds 150/300

Short stack folds (1590)
Chip leader raises to 800 (4945)
I have A9o and 3165 after posting the BB.

What’s my move?

And, more generally, how do I estimate my chances of moving on in these situations? Does the fact that I have the shortie doubled mean I move on 2/3 of the time? More? Less?

I’m confused about how to value my chips in this situation.

All help appreciated,
Che

Che · #2 05-09-2005, 10:15 AM

I pushed and the chip leader called with AK and busted me.

Whether or not to push A9 would be an easy decision IF I knew how to estimate my chances of making top 2. Any help with that?

Later,
Che

durron597 · #3 05-09-2005, 10:19 AM

I seem to recall seeing a post by raptor recently that basically says "don't go toe to toe when you can just steal the blinds the next hand" or something to that effect.

Whether I call or fold here depends a lot more on the aggression factor of the SB than anything else.

schwza · #4 05-09-2005, 12:33 PM

i'd muck here, and would muck hands as strong as AJ as well. the short-stack is going to be so thrilled when you push, you've got to be giving up some to him.

if everyone had 3.3k, you'd be 67% to go. it helps you quite a bit that the other guys' chips are shifted, so i think you are ~75-80% if you fold this hand.

david050173 · #5 05-09-2005, 03:12 PM

I think this is a really bad time to push. Chip leader has enough to call and lose and still be able to play. You are risking 10x the BB. And if the chip leader calls, you are at best coinflipping and more likely dominated. And finally you don't need to do this. In a normal SNG those additional chips might help you get first. Here you are playing for second.

In this case, you want to be attacking the short stack (and hopefully teh chip leader is doing that also).

Depending on the BB, you might be able to raise here (2.5x BB). You do have a decent hand which will be the best most of the time. The problem is if you put 750 chips in and the CL come over the top you have to fold and you have just lost your advantage over the short stack.