$100+9 SnG problem

[Gigabet]

I have actually played with him in a single table satellite. 1k buy in at foxwoods. Me and a gentleman named Texas Ray(from colorado?!) chopped it, while Action Dan went out in the second level pushing over top of an ep raiser with 88, surprisingly enough, the ep raiser called the strong reraise, and his KK held up.

[Michael C.]

Why 30%? Even if they fold 20% of the time or even less it is plus EV. Becuase:

20% of the time= fold, and you win 750
25% of the time= call and win 1,500 (33% of the remaining 80%)
55% of the time= don't hit your flush, and most likely lose 800

Of course sometimes you will be up against a higher flush draw, but figure that is roughly canceled out by the times villian has something like AK and you hit a pair.

If they were to never fold at all it would be slightly minus EV since you aren't quite getting 2-1.

[shejk]

Busting sucks balls.