Smart laydown, or bad fold?

[BBB]

Prima Poker, $.50/$1 7-card stud high, $.05 ante

3rd Street

Seat 1: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___brings-in
Seat 7: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

Pot: $1.90

4th Street

Seat 2: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 6: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

Pot: $4.40

5th Street

Seat 2: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 7: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

Pot: $8.40

5th Street

Seat 2: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 8: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

Pot: $11.40

Figured there was a good chance Seat 5 had made a flush, so I folded since I was still drawing, and could be drawing slim or dead anyway. Prudent, or dumb?

Also, should I complete 3rd? I just called with a J and an 8 dead. Thanks.

[RandomUser]

You are getting 11:1 if you call 6th street, I think this a call.

While he obviously could have a flush, the chances are a lot less than 90%.

He could have started with 9TJ and just made a straight, or something like TTJ or QTJ and have a pair with a straight and/or flush draw.

While the K is definitely a scare card, I don't think you should always see monsters under the bed, especially in a 4-way pot that is pretty large.

I call here and lead the river if I catch the A or Q of spades and check/call otherwise with a lower flush or Js up.

[BBB]

Thanks for responding, I think probably my fold was too conservative - I like the line you propose.

But I think the 90% you mention is off, because that assumes that I make the flush; I'll only make a flush 20% of the time. I think it's actually probably only profitable to continue if he has a made flush on 6th less than about half the time.

[crabbypatty]

even if it is profitable less than 50% of the time i think you still should call. the A and Q are still out there. while it is 4:1 against making your flush you are getting 11:1 on your call and no one can raise behind you. saving $1 here seems way to conservative.
normally i would like to complete on 3rd with my str8 flush draw but, in this game you were probably correct in just calling. especially if you are going to lay down this easily.

[bigredlemon]

Suppose HERO calls. Seat 7 bets again on river, and suppose seat 8 calls. What do you do if you hit a A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], lower [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], two pair kings, or lower two pair? I presume you'll play trip Js the same as two pair kings?

[Andy B]

The pot is way too big to even think about folding a live flush draw. If he shows you a better hand than the one you're drawing to, that's one thing, but you can't fold based on the action. You might want to tread gingerly if you make your flush with something other than the Ace or Queen, though.

Third street is worth completing on flush value alone. You might choose to call in this case, but you should raise with something other than big pairs once in a while.

[BBB]

Ok, thanks guys - I put him on a flush from his betting and because his ranks were so dead, but I realize now that he easily could have holecards like T9, AT, KT, or worse (or two small clubs for a flush that I would beat if I hit).

Also, I definitely need to be more aggressive with live three-flushes on third.

Andy, would you call a river bet if I make jacks up on the end? I probably should, right?

[Andy B]

With Jacks-up? I routinely call down open four-flushes with two pair.

Failing to raise third street with this hand is hardly a major leak. Make spades completely live and turn one of those cards into a live Ace. Failing to raise with that hand would be a leak.