AA -- Turn/River decisions

El Dukie · #1 05-07-2005, 11:48 PM

So I'm in a great 15-30 game the other day. Loose, relatively passive, with only a couple of tricky players. I'm on the button, 1 EP, 1 MP, and CO limp when I look down to see the rockets' red glare, A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I raise, SB folds, BB (a dessicated old woman, extremely weak-tight/passive) calls along with the limpers. Five to the flop for 10.5 SB.

Flop is J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], meaning there are a couple of potential draws out there but nothing too scary. Checked to me, I bet, BB, EP, and CO call. BB I've mentioned. EP is one of the tricky ones, more LAGgy than anything else. CO is relatively loose-passive.

Turn is J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Not really the card I wanted to see. They check to me. Operating under the assumption that I'm either way ahead (most likely) or way behind (if one of them has a J), I check behind. I'm thinking I might induce a river bluff if they put me on AK/AQ.

River is an ugly 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Not really what I wanted to see. Not a heart, but any 6 or J beats me. Somewhat to my surprise, they all check to me again. I now value-bet, hoping to get paid off by a lower pair. To my surprise, BB croaks out "raise" in her dessicated voice. I haven't seen her check-raise once in the last 3 hours. I have seen her call down (rather than raise) with hands like the 3rd nut flush. EP & CO both fold. I can't see any way she doesn't have a J or 6. I fold.

Thoughts? At the time I thought the turn check was proper, but given the 2-flush on the board, I'm not so sure. I'm also wondering about the river bet/fold to a raise decision. (Though that was opponent-specific. I probably would have called EP if he had raised.)

Michael Davis · #2 05-07-2005, 11:52 PM

The turn check is bad. Nobody raised you on the flop so you're much more likely way ahead than way behind. This is a drawy-enough board that giving a free card is no good, and you are missing out on a ton of bets by checking the turn. Plus, it's an easy fold to a checkraise. This is not a spot where you should be thinking about saving bets and making it cheaply to showdown; you should be thinking about collecting bets on a hand that you are winning like 9 out of 10 times (or some other really high number). You should bet the turn with or without the flush draw on board.

-Michael

steveyz · #3 05-08-2005, 12:42 AM

I'd bet this turn. I could see checking if you were heads up, but with this many opponents, you are giving up too many bets, and you can probably easily fold to a check-raise.

Is this the type of game where players usually don't play at the PFR with top pair on the flop?

lil feller · #4 05-08-2005, 01:59 AM

IMO the people saying you should bet this turn are giving your horrible advice.

Hero already described his opponents as mostly weak/passive. These players don't show strength against a preflop raiser, not even with top pair. They will also often check top trips, because thats what passive players do, they check and they call.

With that many callers and the larger number of limping hands that contain a jack, it is almost a certainity that somebody flopped top pair and just check/called with it (again, this is what passive players do). Taking a free card when you know you need it is the right play.

The river is more interesting, and like hero I would have been inclined to bet, and i would have also folded to the c/r. You might get called by as little as A high, and now under pairs like 88 and 99 are also going to call. If you get c/r by anybody but the LAG its an easy muck.

I think you played in perfectly, given your opposition.

lf

Michael Davis · #5 05-08-2005, 02:26 AM

Loose passives could have any piece of the board or not, and will call with any piece of the board or not. Checking the turn is just throwing away money.

-Michael

lil feller · #6 05-08-2005, 02:38 AM

His flop bet was called in 3 spots. One was a tricky LAG. The other was desribed as weak/tight-passive (she isn't calling just to call, she's calling because she has some piece of the flop), and by a loose-passive who could have anything from a J to a 6 to two overs to a backdoor diamond draw.

I just don't see it possible after getting called in 3 spots that nobody has a Jack. Against a different field maybe, but here its clear somebody hit their 5 outer.

If top pair were an 8, it would be different there are just too many hands that these sort of players would limp with, and that a weak/tight would defend her BB with that contain a Jack.

lf

andyfox · #7 05-08-2005, 03:00 AM

"I just don't see it possible after getting called in 3 spots that nobody has a Jack."

I see it all the time. Espeically on a draw-rich board like that. And I see them then fold when the top card pairs a lot. While I agree that there may be a passively played jack out there, the simpler explanation for both no bet and no raise on the flop is more often that they don't have one.

andyfox · #8 05-08-2005, 03:11 AM

$310 in the pot by my fuzzy math. I don't think I'm a good enough player to lay this down in this spot. If I were more than 91% sure I was beat, I'd fold. But she checked a jack 3 times? I asked a top player recently about a similar hand where I thought I should have folded the river and he said he sleeps well at night.

This is why I think it's important to bet the turn. I want to win this pot. I don't want anyone with T-8 or 7-6 or 6-5 or 5-3 or 2-2 or somesuch to catch a card for free that could beat me and I want them to put money in when I have the best of it.

Haven't seen a post with the word "dessicated" in it. Good word.