Derby

[scalf]

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] they showed all of first ten post positions 12-1 or greater..and mostly 20-1 or up....as expected

but afleet alex was the fav at 7-2 and bellamy rd at 4-1 ...hmmmm..

shorty jones was 2nd on early morning line last year...then got bet to fav within a day...held the chalk..and won the race,,,but

i cannot see the arkansas derby winner beating the wood memorial winner..

jmho

gl

[img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[billyjex]

i picked high limit to win because his name reminded me of poker.

[scalf]

duh..that sounds logical..

gl

[img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[dicelumpY2005]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think id be better off locking in 9:2 on Afleet Alex now, or do you think the final line will be better?

[/ QUOTE ]

Where are you guys wagering that ISN'T pari-mutual? (For those that don't know, pari-mutual means that you may bet the race 1 hour before post time, bet on a horse thats 12-1, but you may not get those odds based on the fact that the odds are determined by every single dollar wagered on the race. Someone may walk up, put $10,000 on a horse, thus drastically lowering the odds on that horse for all others that bet on him, which also raises the odds on the other horses)

When you wager at the track, or OTB, odds aren't locked until those horses leave the gait...

[scalf]

[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] a 10 k bet on ky derby is like a 10 dollar bet in regular race..

there are futures books which give you fixed odds on big races..

gl

[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[Jett Rink]

Only 3 horses have a chance to win the Derby.

Bellamy Road (50%)
Afleet Alex (40%)
Bandini (10%)

I'm going with Afleet Alex but Bellamy Road could be a super horse. We'll find out about 2 minutes and one second after the gate opens.

I am interested in hearing the thought process on Sun King. I just don't see it. He put up a nice number when he ran an allowance race, but his last two numbers are unimpressive, his G-3 win he went off at 1-20 so his competition was glue, and his last was not competitive with this group although it looks like he had a horrible ride. I don't know that I see how he can improve to get a piece here.

Interested in thoughts on speed in this race. If someone that is not cheap speed can get out there and run with Bellamy Road so we get a pace, I can see Afleet Alex winning the race. But I am struggling to find that horse. The only one I see could be it is High Limit, or maybe Greeley's Galaxy. Any other speed horse does not look like it would give Bellamy much of a fight.

On the other hand, I will always have difficulty accepting the notion that a horse can win this race wire-to-wire, and I don't see Bellamy sitting in 2nd or 3rd and rating. Too many horses and too much nonsense can happen that I think it's just better to sit in the pack and make a move a the top of the stretch, and that's not a running style that suits Bellamy Road.

If the price on Bellamy Road is short come post time, I think I will go with Afleet Alex and Bandini. Will also look again at Noble Causeway. If the public starts to shy away from Bellamy Road for whatever reason, then I think I would considering going his way.

Don't Get Mad is an interesting horse too. Ordinarily would stay away, but intriguing are (1) running style and (2) win over this track in the Derby Trial. Will look at him again too if the price is right.

Comments on this rant?

I just read that Spanish Chestnut's sole purpose in the race is to go at Bellamy Road early. Not sure what that will do to High Limit. Wonder if that actually may make it more difficult to knock Bellamy Road down, as if you're going against him maybe you're better off having High Limit challenge him, as High Limit may be able to last longer and give a better fight. If High Limit can't make the lead or maybe 2nd, he may not challenge at all. Meanwhile Bellamy Road dusts Spanish whatever, and runs away. Just rambling thoughts.

[chiachu]

dicelump -

"pari-mutual"... i never knew there was a term for it.

I placed my bet on bodog, they have/had a futures line for a while now. It changes depending on how people bet, but the odds when you lay the bet are what you get [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

PS: Afleet is currently 4:1, Bellamy 9:5, and Bandini 7:2 ?!