My first $5/$10 post. KK turn protection or flop blunder?

[WarmonkEd]

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Good analysis, but I think your choice of hands is a little too generous to the opponents. I personally think it is more likely that their hands will not have so many combined outs against you. Plus, might a LPP donk call a bet on the river, even with a weak holding? He might, which is one more BB. All this hypothetical stuff is probably over-analysis, but it's interesting.

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This is true, but at least in this case the extra BB earned doesn't completely compensate for the increased win% in the other scenario.

I just realized my math was slightly off. I should've subtracted 2BB x %lose from the win.

So 16x31.5% - 2x68.5% = 3.67BB
and 14x47.4% - 2x52.6% = 5.58BB

I thought it'd be interesting to show what would happen if we gave the OP a stronger hand, such as JJ.

In this case only a straight or flush can beat him. With four people in, he has a 65% chance of winning. 16 x 65% - 2x35% = 9.7BB expected.

If we get the A5o to fold again, his chances have now only improved to 67% 16 x 67% - 2x33% = 8.7BB. As you can see, now trying to keep everyone in for 2 is the better play.

I think what these hypothetical sims show, is that the times where you have to decide whether to maximize the pot size with a lower win% or maximize the win% with a smaller pot, boils down to gauging the strength of your hand vs the field.