Dumping top 2 on the turn

[mrkilla]

any stats on UTG?
3 bet the turn

[lil feller]

Yes. Those are pretty close to my stats, and there are a lot of hands i'm raising this turn with that are worse than QJ.

He may very well be up against a set, or a straight, but even if he is all his outs are probably clean (if somebody has QQ or JJ here good for them). I think most of the time given the lack of flop aggression he's in front here, and if he's not he's drawing live, and will get paid plenty if he hit, especially if 99 is out there.

lf

[I Play 2 Ski]

Stats
UTG - 41 hands - 43/14/1
UTG +1 - 43 Hands - 12/8/1.5

[FoodForThought]

What ever happened to good laydowns? I think three betting is an option, but I like the laydown. There is a good chance you are behind (QQ, JJ, 99, 77, KT, T8)....but even if you are ahead, there are MANY cards that will kill your hand on the river. I'm not saying three betting is wrong...but it is not a clear three bet (I haven't worked out the math).

[lil feller]

This is a likely possibility.

SB is making a hopeless turn semi-bluff bet with a flush draw that doesn't include a T.

UTG is raising him with AA

UTG +1 calling with JT.

This is about as bad as it can get for our hero, if he is infront at the time.

the guy with the heart draw has 8 outs against our hand
the guy with the Aces has 7 or 8 unshared outs (depending on if he has A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in his hand or not.
the guy with a Ten has 6 unshared outs.

I think this is right, I might have missed something. That leaves the field with 21 or 22 outs, depending on the guy with the overpair (note if he has kings our situation improves a little). The field will improve a little better then 50% of the time (22 outs/40 unseens right? its very possible I hosed this, i'm more of a "feel" player then a math player).

Hero's getting 4:1 on his turn call, and can likely fold the river if one of the obvious draws gets there. I'd like my chances here well enough to continue, even if I knew the field would get there over half the time.

If he's behind getting 4:1 certainly isn't enough to draw to a four card full house, but if hero improves it isn't unreasonably to see 6 big bets that aren't ours go in on the river here, which makes it pretty close. That combined with the great chance that he's acutally leading make continuing a must, and if he's going to continue, 3betting is the best way to go. If he's really worried about a set, he can always check down the river if he misses.

lf

[FoodForThought]

Yeah...I hear you. I didn't work it all out. I'm just not sure it's a clear three bet. Have to look at odds that you are behind with your outs...and the odds hand holds up if not behind. Regarding feel vs. math....something about that hand makes me feel like someone was slowplaying a monster...and the cold caller worries me.

[I Play 2 Ski]

[ QUOTE ]
Regarding feel vs. math....something about that hand makes me feel like someone was slowplaying a monster...and the cold caller worries me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats exactly what i was thinking. I'll post the results shortly

[I Play 2 Ski]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like this hand, because I played it passively, but what else could I do?

SB is 21/9/2

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero folds, SB calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

The river was another 9

SB - AA
UTG - J9
UTG+1 - 88

[rigoletto]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3-bet the turn!

[/ QUOTE ]

I was either going to 3 bet or fold. After thinking for a few moments, I decided something was very wrong and folded. Is this an auto 3 bet for you all the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well you said 'but what else could I do?' and I answered. I'm trying to rid my play of auto actions, but I would 3-bet here a wast majority of the time.

[FoodForThought]

So much for my 'feel'........lol