My worst hand of the night.... just how stupid am I?

kurto · #1 05-06-2005, 03:02 AM

My last hand for the night. I saved my worst for last. But how terrible was it? I can't decide if I was a complete moron or if it was reasonable based on my read on how the guy plays.

The villain has been VERY laggy and very lucky.

He doesn't play too many weird hands. plays any connectors, Ace-broadway, raises with any pair, plays any Ace or Kingx suited.

He bluffs quite a bit. He overbets with ANY top pair. If he plays 9Js and the board flops 9high, he will bet it hard. He's made a lot of money because 8-9 call him down. This goes through my head on this hand.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

MP1 ($41.05)
MP2 ($57.45)
MP3 ($39.1)
Hero ($25.4)
Button ($12.2)
SB ($41.5)
BB ($15.75)
UTG ($24.75)
UTG+1 ($30.95)
UTG+2 ($32.87)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.1.
UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls $0.25, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.25, Button calls $0.25, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 bets $1, MP2 raises to $3, Hero calls $3, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+2 folds.

His reraise really just means he has a connected. I do NOT take it to me has the straight because he does this all the time. (you will see at the end that I was correct in this part of my read.) I call because (1) I have the OESD, backdoor flush and, in all honesty, I could have a better pair then him)

Turn: ($8.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets $5, Hero calls $5.

River: ($18.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets $18, Hero calls $17.15 (All-In).

Here's where I'm not sure... this is either the best card for me or the worst. I know that he would make this bet if he had A6 or the straight.

My question:
(1) should I not be in this position at all?
(2) Now that I'm here... do I call with a set?

For those who like results...
the villain turned over a 6-7 of hearts. He was betting with top pair, 7 kicker and an inside straight draw. Though I was drawing dead with his kicker, the fact of the matter is I know the guy would have played it the same way with ANY 6... and possibly with any pair. Knowing that about the opponent, does that make this a reasonable gamble?

snappo · #2 05-06-2005, 03:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I call because (1) I have the OESD, backdoor flush and, in all honesty, I could have a better pair then him)

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure about how you played the hand, but I would not consider the backdoor flush cards as outs. (Except of course the backdoor straight flush.)

kurto · #3 05-06-2005, 03:17 AM

I'm not hoping for the flush, but its worth SOMETHING if it comes. If he doesn't have any diamonds, its certainly possible to win the hand with it. Again.. I wouldn't HOPE that a flush came, but I haven't seen this villain bluff with flush draws. He was a little more straightforward. (he'd call with a straight draw, not raise with it.)

kurto · #4 05-06-2005, 11:04 AM

Bump...

No one else thinks to berate or praise here?

Zag · #5 05-06-2005, 11:31 AM

Well, you made a read, you went with it, and it didn't turn out. They don't all work, because even blind squirrel .. yada yada.

Just to put some numbers around your pretty squishy read:

On the flop, you felt there was some chance that you were ahead already, and you had 8 pretty clean outs if you weren't. It depends on UTG+2, who made the initial flop bet, whether or not it makes any sense to call here. If his out of position bet usually means top two, then you are looking at a reraise behind you and therefore it is a terrible call. I'll assume that his actual action was indicative, and therefore you know that he was likely just making a steal and would give up.

So, you called $3 to win $5.75 plus implied. Pretty stinky when there are a couple of hands that 56 that have you in a world of hurt, so you really have to believe that he would make this raise with A3 and A4 as well as any 6 or overpair. On the other hand, your read of this player is for huge implied odds, since he will keep betting with any pair, so your are really calling $3 to win $26.

Turn, you are calling $5 to win $13 (implied to win $30). If you really have only 8 outs, then you are expecting 6-to-1 payoff and your odds are 38-to-8 or 4.75-to-1. You would like to have a bigger edge against implied odds (because they are only implied, after all), especially since not all your outs are clean. On the other hand, you still think that there is some chance you are actually ahead. I'm inclined to doubt that many people would still be pushing A4, here, but you were there, not me.

River, you call $17 to win $37, or just a little better than 2-to-1. I would think that, if he didn't have the straight, he would have given up by now and just made a blocking bet or checked and hoped you didn't have the straight. You said "I know that he would make this bet if he had A6 or the straight" OK, given the earlier betting, he is more likely to have the A6 than the straight, so given that read, its an easy call.

An interesting question is what you would have done on the river if it had been the J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (or some other blank) and you were faced with the same all-in bet. I don't think that it is twice as likely for him to hold a 3 or 4 as a 6. After all, he might have played 67 or 68, but not 37 or 37. Also, he might have held 34 or 46, further discounting the chances you were ahead.

I guess I can't completely fault any action you took, but the bottom line is that you were behind since the flop, and, if the cards were face up, you never had odds to call any of his bets. Of course, this might not be true against the entire range of hands he might have, but it was certainly true against the actual one.

TrailofTears · #6 05-06-2005, 11:55 AM

I'm probably playing it the same as you, but I might raise the flop to take it down or for a free card on the turn. I wouldn't let go of it on the river, fwiw.

-T

PinkSteel · #7 05-06-2005, 11:56 AM

This is coming from a donkey, so I'm not pretending to have the answer here, but this is how a good LAG gets you, right? (Hey, he may have been a terrible LAG; your read, not mine.) He gets you playing a *pretty good* hand, thinking it will be good enough to beat him, and then he finds a better one?

Preflop, you were playing for the set. Once that flop hit, let's face it, you were playing an OESD. Had either end rivered for you, your hand would have been good. You had decent odds to call on the turn.

I probably would have called with you on the river, but I wouldn't have felt good about it....

When I was picking up this game I watched WSOP '04 and saw a play that I thought was the mark of a really good player. Josh Arieh filled his heart flush on the river with Qh, but that Q paired the board. He had read his opponent for trips the whole way, and now figuring him for the house, he folded. And I thought, that has got to be hard to do. Just like your river decision.

{Sorry for the ramble....)

runyan99 · #8 05-06-2005, 02:57 PM

It's an interesting hand.

Maybe the problem is that you called the whole way and never took the lead.

I like to raise on the flop when I hit an open ended draw to get the free card. I'm not really a 'math' guy, so I'll make this play anytime it doesn't seem too expensive. Sometimes this also allows me to bluff the whole pot on the river, even if I didn't make my hand.

In this example, re-raising to $6 on the flop may have slowed down your opponent on the turn (maybe you have the A6o?) This move actually saves you some money by not calling his turn bet.

If you raise and he still comes at you strong on the turn, you can consider folding to a better hand.

Although you had outs, I would probably fold to the $5 turn bet he made and look for a better spot. He's just betting it too strong here, and even without the benefit of hindsight, you can see you are probably getting the worst of it at this point. Any 6 has you beat about 3/4 of the time here.

If he checks the turn and you are VERY aggressive and bet the turn yourself (a move I probably couldn't make), you might get the villian to fold his 6 to you.

If you do all this and the hand still gets to the river 5, you're in trouble either way you played it.

runyan99 · #9 05-06-2005, 03:08 PM

One last thing. In late position with a pair, I would have made a standard raise preflop to $1 about half the time, just to take control of the hand.

This does two things. First your opponents are now more likely to check the flop to you rather than bet and raise, and if they do, they are now more likely to fold to the re-raise I suggested on the flop with your open draw. They may put you on an big overpair and fold!