Jack Nine Suited

[Grail]

I make this call PF, but I wince when I do it. Paying 3 bets to see the flop with J9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hurts, but you've got 1 bet in already and this is going to be a big pot with a hand that can beat many people if it hits.

I might raise this flop, but calling to the river is fine IMO. River raise is good. I would do it, but some might say going for 2 overcalls > 1 guy calling your raise.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
I make this call PF, but I wince when I do it. Paying 3 bets to see the flop with J9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hurts, but you've got 1 bet in already and this is going to be a big pot with a hand that can beat many people if it hits.

[/ QUOTE ]
The fact that we have put money in the pot in no way determines whether we should continue. The current pot odds and implied odds make that decision.

[MrWookie47]

With two preflop raisers immediately behind hero, going for a check/raise on the flop is a much better plan than betting out, getting raised and reraised, blasting out the field, and then finding yourself 3way between two guys in a raising war.

[Grail]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I make this call PF, but I wince when I do it. Paying 3 bets to see the flop with J9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hurts, but you've got 1 bet in already and this is going to be a big pot with a hand that can beat many people if it hits.

[/ QUOTE ]
The fact that we have put money in the pot in no way determines whether we should continue. The current pot odds and implied odds make that decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct, and that’s a great point that many people miss.

Having 1 bet in means he's only calling 2 bets instead of 3 which greatly improves his odds. He’s getting basically 15-2 or 7.5-1 instead of 15-3 or 5-1.

At 7.5-1 folding might still be slightly +EV but it’s much closer than it is at 5-1. If you add implied odds for the times hit hits a monster draw it may not be that bad of a call in the end.

-G

[martinimagic]

Good point. I guess the question is was his intent to go for a C/R? I don't know if he was going for C/R here... looks like call down mode. The fact I can see all streets probably has affected my judgement as well.

[wyoak]

at 7.5-1 this should be an instant call. even the risk of the betting being capped shouldn't disturb you since a cap isn't knocking anyone out anyway. your implied odds suffer a bit but not enough to justify folding imo.

mp2 and mp3 seem like they may have called the river for 1 bet so going for overcalls may have gained you a BB, but I'm basing that read off one hand so I don't know how accurate that is.

[xenthebrain]

I think you played it fine.

The cold-call preflop is fine, since so many come along.

On the flop you expect one of the preflop agressors to bet, I think if someone did you would've c/r for value.
If you bet yourself here, you must fear that it gets 3-bet and scares others away.

To just call the turn with an 8 outer is fine too, IMO.

[walkdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
With two preflop raisers immediately behind hero, going for a check/raise on the flop is a much better plan than betting out, getting raised and reraised, blasting out the field, and then finding yourself 3way between two guys in a raising war.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was actually a consideration of mine, but it got checked thru so I had no chance to follow thru.
walkdoc

[Shillx]

Okay here are my long awaited thoughts. Back when I thought I was a good player, I would have folded this hand to the 3-bet in an instant. I really feel like it is mistake now since I know that J9s will hit so many flops hard.

First Guess: I call this.

Now for some analysis. How often will we hit a money making flop?

Two pair - 2.02%
Trips or better - 1.45%
Flush draw - 10.94%
Flush - .84%
Straight (not monotone) - .92%
Straight draw* (QTx, T8x and not monotone) - 5.2%

Total = 21.37% = 3.68:1 against hitting a $ making flop.

The pot is offering us 14:2 at best and 19:3 at worst. We will hit a money making flop far more often that. We will also flop profitable hands like gutshots and single pairs some of the time. The point of this is...even if you folded unless you flopped a doozy, you would be correct to call this. You will make money after the flop if you hit 2-pair or a flush draw that you can just play for the big flops to continue on. If you add in the times that you flop a single pair or gutshot, you will make even more.

Brad

* - This is calculated by (4*4*40 - 130)*6 / (50*49*48)...this accounts for the times that you flop a straight flush draw (or a straight draw when you get a monotone flop that is not of your suit).