AA v. Minraise on Lowish Flop

[TrailofTears]

This is not a clear "push or fold" situation at all. There are many other lines out there for hero to take and taking the most mindless and easiest to suggest is lazy and incorrect.

To the OP, this is a tough hand because there isn't a correct line to take, per say. Let's be honest, min-raises don't tell us a whole lot unless we have seen the player make them before and seen what he was holding. It is hard to suggest a line with so little information. If playing this blind (no reads), then our help, while with good intentions, is not going to be anything but each person's preferred line and a bit of guesswork.

-T

[CHiPS]

On the question of whether to go all in, I agree with Trail of Tears that other lines may be preferable.
When villian raises on the flop to $70, there is now about $140 in the pot and hero has about $375 left. We are thinking that its maybe a 40% chance that villian has us beat with something like a set (I'm making that number up, but thats what I'm guessing). If we push its a big overbet and that puts villian in a situation where he would call with the set - nailing us for $375, and fold a hand that we could beat - making us $140. That's not too good a proposition. I've simplified it a lot, but I think that's roughly what this boils down to. On the other hand if we reraised to $140 then there is some chance villian may fold, which is fine I think. Also there is some chance he may call with a hand like KK. And if he is on some kind of a draw and he was trying to minraise here to get a free card on the turn we just charged him triple for that card. Yes by raising to $140 hero is pretty much pot committed at this point, but it avoids putting villian in a clear situation of call if he has hero beat fold if he does not. If villian has something like KK now villian is the one sweating it out. Likewise if villian is on a draw (which given the preflop action I have to guess is less likely).
So the strategy is designed to put pressure on an opponent and put him in a position where he has a difficult decision and can make a mistake.
Another way of thinking about this situation might be to produce in the mind of the villian the idea that I may be weak or afraid and inducing a big bet from him with a hand like KK or a draw. So getting him to be overconfident. But it must be understood from the outset that is the strategy so if he does make the big bet I must be willing to call. This would be another way of getting him to do the wrong thing in those situations where I do have the best hand.

[creedofhubris]

Yeah, my standard here would be to assume he has either some pair or a 7. Bet the turn if it's a blank (the Q is a blank.) If the straight hits, then check and play it from there.

If you bet a blank turn, and he comes over the top AGAIN, he's either got KK or a set/2p, you'll have to use your judgment.

If you bet turn and he calls, you can pretty easily put him on some kind of draw, and your best bet is to check any river and calll a reasonable bet.

[Big_Jim]

Thanks every body for the responses.

I will definately try to pot more information about reads in future posts, but unfortunately, I didn't have one on this hand.

I bet about 3/4 of the pot on the turn, and he flat called. Confirming the straight draw, as I'm almost positive any set would have pushed right there, although two pair may have called.

On the river, the board was
[5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

and I check folded to his all in.

So, I took a pretty similar line to what several posters recommended, and I think that the laydown was good, unless this guy had some serious balls.

The guy stuck around for about 3 more hands and bailed... hate that.

[Big_Jim]

Good point. This is a tough hand anyway, and it's just ridiculous with no reads.

[Big_Jim]

This is the line that I ended up taking, and I think that it's a decent one. This way, if he does have a hand like 78, he doesn't have the option of pushing in as a coinflip, which I would probably have to fold to.

[Big_Jim]

I really, really don't like a push here.

A push will fold all the hands I have beat, and any hand that has me beat will call instantly.

[Big_Jim]

As I mentioned to a previous poster, I was skeptical to re-raise the flop, not only because I was worried about monsters under the bed. A hand like 78 67 or 57 might just push to a re-raise (I know I have) as a 50/50 slight favorite, which I would be forced to fold to.