Set vs flush and straight draw 2

regular · #1 05-05-2005, 02:55 PM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (8 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB calls, MP1 raises, MP2 3-bets, Hero calls, Button calls $1.25 (All-In), BB calls, MP1 calls.

River: (21.31 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players, 1 all-in)
BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 24.31 BB

I'm wondering would just checking after a third card to a flush falls when holding a set is a smart play or not?

Pokey · #2 05-05-2005, 04:58 PM

Even if your opponents pull you aside and show you a flush and a straight, respectively, you're still not wrong to bet this pot.

You've got 10 outs to improve, after all: 9 cards pair the board and make you a full house, and the case 5 gives you four of a kind. With 10 outs, you've got about a 20% chance to win this pot on the river, and with four opponents, your bet is break-even. Given that you're not sure someone has a flush or straight, you have to up your pot equity to above 20% for the times where your hand is currently good; that gives you an incentive to bet.

However, when it comes back to you for two more bets, now you can be pretty sure that you're on the draw. You've still got pot odds to call, but now you know your pot equity is only 20%.

When the river card craps out on you, your call is crying. With over 20 BBs in the pot, I think you still have to call this one down, but you'll lose almost always in this situation. Of course, you only have to win 5% of the time for the call to be correct, and since you can never be 95% sure someone isn't bluffing, you've got to pay off.

undathesea · #3 05-05-2005, 05:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Even if your opponents pull you aside and show you a flush and a straight, respectively, you're still not wrong to bet this pot.

You've got 10 outs to improve, after all: 9 cards pair the board and make you a full house, and the case 5 gives you four of a kind. With 10 outs, you've got about a 20% chance to win this pot on the river, and with four opponents, your bet is break-even. Given that you're not sure someone has a flush or straight, you have to up your pot equity to above 20% for the times where your hand is currently good; that gives you an incentive to bet.

However, when it comes back to you for two more bets, now you can be pretty sure that you're on the draw. You've still got pot odds to call, but now you know your pot equity is only 20%.

When the river card craps out on you, your call is crying. With over 20 BBs in the pot, I think you still have to call this one down, but you'll lose almost always in this situation. Of course, you only have to win 5% of the time for the call to be correct, and since you can never be 95% sure someone isn't bluffing, you've got to pay off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly.

regular · #4 05-06-2005, 01:51 AM

thank you for the insight and your responses.