99 vs 3bet

deepsquat · #1 05-05-2005, 06:30 AM

CO was VPIP 59% PFR 25% after 67 hands. Aggression factor of 1.06

He is obviously quite LAGGY but i hadnt really noticed him.

I got a bit lost here, i was contemplating a turn raise but chose to fold. I think this was a bad decision in this pot, opinions?

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $0.75.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO 3-bets, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (18 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls, CO raises, Button calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

I bet out to see how much CO liked his hand, and also for his raise to possibly clear the field.

Turn: (13 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO bets, Button folds, Hero folds, MP2 folds.

Final Pot: 14 BB

Shillx · #2 05-05-2005, 06:41 AM

No way I'm folding this hand the way it went down. In fact, you played this hand very poorly (hense the post). The key point in the hand is the flop bet and how the CO will react to it. For the sake of argument, let's say that he can either auto raise the flop or just raise the flop with hands that beat yours (and call with something like AK).

If he will only raise the flop with hands that beat yours, you played it fine. His flop raise tells you that your nines aren't the best hand and you correctly call the flop raise for set value and then fold the turn UI. Since you posted the hand, I don't think that this is the case. Typical LAGGY types will raise lots of different hands on the flop, including those that you can beat. So if you bet into him with the intention of getting it HU with a hand that might have you beat but might be drawing to 6 outs, the turn fold is horrible. What you have to determine is...which hands will he raise on the flop? If you think that he will blow everyone away with AK, you have to call this down. Yeah you will sometimes see AA or QQ, but you will often times get shown UI AJ or 77 or whatever.

Brad

deepsquat · #3 05-05-2005, 07:13 AM

Thanks Brad, it felt like a bad fold.

I would have to think given his stats that my 99's would have to be good often enough to warrant see a SD in this pot.

ArturiusX · #4 05-05-2005, 07:36 AM

Pot Size: 13BB

This is the key. Call this baby down.

martinimagic · #5 05-05-2005, 07:54 AM

My line with the LAGs in this situation is to err with aggression. Raising is my first choice and if 3-bet then call it down. Calling it down from the turn is a good choice, but folding is out of the question.

ajrenni · #6 05-05-2005, 08:15 AM

An aggression factor of 1.06 isn't that high, particularly if his 25% pfr is included. He seems to be slowing down after the flop for the most part.

I would probably check-call the flop. When CO raises there is now 21 SB in the pot, so Button and UTG+1 are getting good odds to call gutshots and bottom pair w/ overcard anyway. If an overcard comes on the turn, your hand is screwed whether CO has you beat on the flop or not. If a blank falls, a bet on the turn would give worse odds to callers, particularly if CO raises you. Or you could check-raise to try and knock out MP2.

I think the turn call is one of those deals where the pot is big enough to justify chasing. 14:1 is enough, considering that you still might be ahead of overcards. Having raised the flop and gotten 3-bet, I would not raise the turn.

CEE · #7 05-05-2005, 09:19 AM

I probably would have called down, or raised, given his PF aggression. It's fairly likely (better than 20 to 2) that he is playing AK or AJ or something rather than a pocket pair higher than yours. Discount that a little by the possibility that he has made a set with a lower PP or was playing AT and hit his pair.

I always love it when a guy is raising more hands than I play...

Luv2DriveTT · #8 05-05-2005, 09:22 AM

Nice flop bet, good thought process. Sad you had to fold the turn after you stared off so good.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

jrz1972 · #9 05-05-2005, 09:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
An aggression factor of 1.06 isn't that high,

[/ QUOTE ]

Remember, his VPIP is ~60%. He's in there with absolute garbage, but yet is still betting/raising about as often as he's folding. This implies that he is likely getting way out of line with trash.

A 60% VP player with AF = 1.0 is probably more maniacally aggressive than a 17% VP player with AF = 3.0. When a tight player is aggressive, you at least know he has a hand that warrants it.

car ramrod · #10 05-05-2005, 09:35 AM

with those kind of stats I am wanting to show this hand down. This is a good flop for your 99's and the pot is big.
I would have 3 bet the flop. This would give us an idea of where he is, also it may get a fold or two.
If he caps then I may fold turn ui, or call down if low cards fall.
This is read dependent, but against this guy I want to get it heads up and I want to show down with him. I think he could have AK, AQ, 77