Casino whoring hourly rate?

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
I never did figure out how to calculate that... care to help a whore out? I assume it's related to SD, BR, WR, and bet size, but I don't know how all of them relate. And would a calculation for VP be the same (not the same numbers, obviously)?

Freakin

[/ QUOTE ]

1-[r+(1-r)*N(-EV/SD)]

r = risk of ruin
EV = expected value (including bonus)
SD = standard deviation

In plain English:

To figure out how often you'll lose more than the bonus, take the percentage of time that you bust (r) and add the percentage of time you don't bust, but lose your own money (1-r is the percentage of time you don't bust and is multiplied by N(-EV/SD), which is how often you'll lose more than the bonus). Now take this whole thing and subtract it from 1 to figure out how often you'll win money.

I have spreadsheets to do this stuff for me now. They aren't pretty, but they get the job done.

-- Homer

[IggyWH]

[ QUOTE ]
ok, so if CON is 10xB, which makes it a WR of $2000 (right)

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct...

But remember, DO NO DEPOSIT TO CON WITH NETELLER!!!

Incase you didn't know, they recently changed their T&C so Neteller deposit bonuses have to be wagered 50x.

[knowlesm]

[ QUOTE ]
I never did figure out how to calculate that... care to help a whore out? I assume it's related to SD, BR, WR, and bet size, but I don't know how all of them relate. And would a calculation for VP be the same (not the same numbers, obviously)?

Freakin

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure. 200 bonus/$5 hands/2000 WR/HA of .46%

EV = 200 - 2000*.0046 = 190.8
s.d. = sqrt(2000/5) * 1.14 * 5 = 114
z-score = 190.8/114 = 1.67368
(that's just the mathematical way of saying how far away 0/busting is)
Look that up in a normal distribution table and get p = .953

95.3% chance of not busting.

Only thing different about VP would be the HA and sd for one hand (1.14 for BJ).

[knowlesm]

[ QUOTE ]

although EV stays the same (well, close enough).


[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting, and I agree with you that bet size does effect EV at some point. When I get my lattice model right, i'll ask you and the other bw about it. It's been a long time since i've looked at any RoR or Brownian motion stuff.

[moondogg]

A general rule of thumb I use is that I can usually wager 50 bets in between 5 to 10 minutes (assuming concentration and no breaks). Exactly where in between that 5 and 10 depends in on the speed of the site.

Once you've wagered 50 bets at any given site you should be able to tell exactly how long it will take you.