folding QQ pre-lfop

[paulish]

(I have posted a similar question on another site, but I'd like to hear what you guys have to say [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img])

Situation [*] Early in a $100 buy-in online NL Hold’em Freeze-out tourney, Level: 10/20[*] Hero and Villain have equal chip stacks[*] Villain has just arrived at the table; no read or info

SB posts $10, BB posts $20, fold to MP2 (Villain) who makes it $60, fold to CO (Hero), raises to $150, everybody folds to MP2 who pushes all-in.
<font color="red"> How big raise can you call here? </font>

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Here are a couple of scenarios with both players starting the hand with;

$480 (scenario#1)
There is now (10+20+150+480=) 660$ in the pot, and its $330 to call. The pot is laying you 2-1
Outcomes [*] You call and lose – you’re out[*] You fold - $330 (17xBB), you’ve wasted 31% of your stack[*] You call and win - $990 (50xBB)

$810 (scenario#2)
There is now (10+20+150+810) $990 in the pot, and its $660 to call. The pot is laying you 1,5-1
Outcomes [*] You call and lose – you’re out[*] You fold – $660 (33xBB), you’ve wasted 19% of your stack.[*] You call and win – $1.650 (83xBB)

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If you put MP2 on [AA, KK or AK], you’re [QQ] has an EV of 40%, in other words you need 1,5-1 in pot odds to call.

It’s an easy call in Scenario#1 I guess, but what do you do in Scenario#2?
You can’t put a reasonable player on AK here, but you can’t put him on Aces either... in fact I don’t think a good player would have over-bet the pot to such an extent, with any kind of hand. (There is $240 in the pot when it comes back to MP2, and he has $750 left).
So with a play like this, you have to figure you’re opponent for being a newbie. And newbies might play Aces and Kings like this, but they might also play AK, and even JJ and TT the same way. Personally I think that the bigger and more unreasonable the bet, the less likely it is that you’re opponent is holding [AA].

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Here are some EV’s for the Pocket Queens against vs. a range of hands, and the relevant pot odds you need;
QQ vs. [AA or KK] = 18% = 4,5-1
QQ vs. [AA, KK or AKs] = 27% = 2,17-1
QQ vs [KK, AKs] = 33% = 2-1
QQ vs [AA, KK, or AK] = 40% (*46%) = 1,5-1
QQ vs [AA-JJ] = 40% (*50%) = 1,5-1
QQ vs [AA-JJ or AK] = 47% (*53%)
(*EV if you remove AA)

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As you can see, as long as you can put your opponent on something more than just AA and KK, you can call. The call becomes easier if you decrease the possibility of being up against AA.
Remember, it’s early in the tourney, and you don’t have any info on MP2, other than the fact that he has just made a pretty strange bet. Remember that you can put you'self in a good position to do well in the tourney if you win...but you may also have to go home after this hand. Also note that you do have a playable stack of $660, if you decide to fold.
One more time, <font color="red"> how big an re-raise all-in would you call here, and why?</font>

<font color="blue"> paulish </font>