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#31
05-02-2005, 09:14 PM
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Re: Analysis
[ QUOTE ]
if she checks behind on the turn with AQ and then bets the river can you call? will she bet AQ on the river? if so that seriuosly diminsihes your "3 outs" [/ QUOTE ] I think a big majority of tag players who would check behind with AQ on the turn would also check it on the river. If they wanted to bluff they'd bet the turn. 
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#32
05-03-2005, 04:00 AM
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Re: Analysis
Just a thought:
You assume the range of your opponents' possible hands is AK-AQ, AA-88. This appears to be reasonable. But you also assume that she is as likely to reraise with AQ as with say AA. Wouldn't it be more realistic to calculate like this: AA-TT, AK: reraise 100 % x 39 combos = 3900 AQ, 99-88 reraise 50 % x 9 combos = 450 AQ reraise 50% x 16 combos = 800 Probability she is holding AQ = 800/5150 = 15.5 % (which is quite different from your 25%). If she respects your raise I seriously doubt that she will certainly reraise UTG+1 holding just AQ (and I don't think she should). Just a thought. Excellent post in any case, Nate.
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#34
05-05-2005, 04:33 AM
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Thinking what they\'re thinking
[ QUOTE ]
this is an amazing post, it now makes sense, but i believe this should only pertain to the limits of 15-30 and up, as low limit players (and still many at the party 15) still bet the turn if checked to no matter what. not many players 'give up' like you say they do...most bet the turn regardless and then check the river UI so their nut no pair gets to showdown [/ QUOTE ] My standard line against passive postflop players is to bet my Ace high on the turn, and check-behind UI on the river. However, against players I play frequently with and I know are solid players I'll be more apt to check behind in this spot because of the decent possibility I'll could be check raised.
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#35
05-05-2005, 09:01 AM
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Re: Analysis
I agree with your general points here but you should factor in how likely this person is to 3-bet pre-flop with AQ, there certainly not doing this everytime given your position especially if they have you pegged as a good player.
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